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The ability to think probabilistically is important for many reasons. Lack of it makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivet, precludes intelligent assessment of risks, ensures the operation of several common biases, impairs ...

The ability to think probabilistically is important for many reasons. Lack of it makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivet, precludes intelligent assessment of risks, ensures the operation of several common biases, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims, and generally undercuts rational thinking in numerous ways. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the necessary information needed to make educated assumptions about the statistical or probabilistic characteristics of a situation to better prepare the reader to make intelligent assessments of risk, enhance decision making under uncertainty, facilitate the understanding of statistical information, and critically evaluate the likelihood of claims. For this reason, the book appeals to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and those who evaluate social dilemmas. The only prerequisite is standard high school math. In the book, Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent is their reasoning under uncertainty given the principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory? It reviews the evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts Contact Susan Barker at (201) 258-2282 for more information to investigate these the similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters analyze such things as probability and chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes and dilemmas,and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers by examining such issues as estimation and prediction, perception and covariance, choice under uncertaint

Storrs McCall presents an original philosophical theory of the nature of the universe based on a striking new model of its space-time structure and argues that the fact that the model throws light on such a large number of problems constitutes strong evidence that the universe is as the model ...

Storrs McCall presents an original philosophical theory of the nature of the universe based on a striking new model of its space-time structure and argues that the fact that the model throws light on such a large number of problems constitutes strong evidence that the universe is as the model portrays it. An ambitious, controversial, and ingenious idea for a completely new metaphysical foundation for philosophy and physics, this book discusses a broad range of topics within the framework of the new theory, and will be of special interest to physicists for its original new interpretation of quantum mechanics.