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The ability to think probabilistically is important for many reasons. Lack of it makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivet, precludes intelligent assessment of risks, ensures the operation of several common biases, impairs ...

The ability to think probabilistically is important for many reasons. Lack of it makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivet, precludes intelligent assessment of risks, ensures the operation of several common biases, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims, and generally undercuts rational thinking in numerous ways. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the necessary information needed to make educated assumptions about the statistical or probabilistic characteristics of a situation to better prepare the reader to make intelligent assessments of risk, enhance decision making under uncertainty, facilitate the understanding of statistical information, and critically evaluate the likelihood of claims. For this reason, the book appeals to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and those who evaluate social dilemmas. The only prerequisite is standard high school math. In the book, Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent is their reasoning under uncertainty given the principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory? It reviews the evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts Contact Susan Barker at (201) 258-2282 for more information to investigate these the similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters analyze such things as probability and chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes and dilemmas,and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers by examining such issues as estimation and prediction, perception and covariance, choice under uncertaint

Reporting on health risks is rarely simple and straightforward. Scientific findings are often complex and ambiguous. Even researchers may disagree on their import. Relatively few journalists have special training in science or medicine. Sources of information are often biased, and there is constant ...

Reporting on health risks is rarely simple and straightforward. Scientific findings are often complex and ambiguous. Even researchers may disagree on their import. Relatively few journalists have special training in science or medicine. Sources of information are often biased, and there is constant pressure to convert dry, technical material into compelling, readable stories. No wonder reporters sometimes exaggerate or otherwise misinterpret the risks, or overemphasize the emotional side of scientific stories, or unwittingly introduce inaccuracies or make important omissions. All this leaves us--the newspaper reader or TV viewer--with many unanswered questions: Is borderline cholesterol a significant health risk? Has global warming already started? Is Alar a serious threat? Is it really dangerous to live near a nuclear reactor? In Health in the Headlines, Stephen Klaidman illuminates the tangle of science, politics, and economics that often obscures health reporting, focusing on seven major stories: EDB, radon, nuclear power, the greenhouse effect, AIDS, cholesterol, and smoking. In each section, Klaidman vividly recounts how the story developed and evaluates how the press performed. In the chapter on AIDS, for instance, he traces the story from the first reports by the CDC and the early articles by The Los Angeles Times and The New York Times, to the dramatic increase in coverage following Rock Hudson's death. Klaidman finds that the science coverage of the AIDS crisis was highly competent, but the coverage of the human story and especially the political story (the Reagan Administration's inadequate funding of AIDS research, despite calling it their "number one health priority") was generally poor--on the rare occasion when they covered the story at all, most reporters uncritically accepted the Administration's side over that of AIDS activists (who were predominantly gay). Throughout the book, Klaidman provides illuminating insights into health-care reporting and he issues numerous caveats. He points out, for instance, that while reporters sometimes exaggerate health risks (such as at Love Canal), the very real threat posed by radon has been underplayed by the press, partly because there is no industry or government agency to cast as villain. And he warns that visual images used to dramatize a story may also skew it: an extremely rare side-effect of a drug, when featured on TV, leads to distorted gut-level conclusions about risk. Every day we hear news on cholesterol, asbestos, global warming--stories that are not only upsetting, but frequently confusing. Health in the Headlines gives us the insight to make more sense of these daily reports, so that we can better assess our risks and make more informed judgments.