Signaling Democracy: Patron-Client Relations and Democratization in South Korea and Poland

Beginning of article

Facing massive protests, why did incumbent regimes in both South Korea and Poland repress movements for democratization in the early 1980s but make democratic concessions to the opposition in the late 1980s? I demonstrate how the United States and the Soviet Union as superpower patron states influenced democratic transitions in South Korea and Poland. The different outcomes across time are partially attributed to superpower policies toward their client states. Absent in 1980 were strong, credible signals from the United States and the Soviet Union to their respective client states to support political liberalization. But in the late 1980s superpowers affected the calculus of client state elites by either signaling or encouraging governments to make concessions to the opposition.

KEYWORDS: democratization, signaling, patron-client relations, international pressure, Cold War, regime change, authoritarianism, security, South Korea, Poland

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The democratic transitions literature largely remains within the realm of comparative politics, focusing on domestic structures and agents when studying the internal transformation of political systems and institutions. Consequently, the international dimension stays in the background while factors emphasizing mass mobilization or elite bargaining take center stage.

In this article, I explore the international dimensions of democratization by focusing on superpower-client relations. Specifically, I examine US-South Korean and Soviet-Polish relations to show how superpowers affect the democratization process within their client states. Although most scholars acknowledge that international influences play at least a peripheral role in Korea's and Poland's democratic transition, political scientists traditionally use elite bargaining or mass-based theories to explain these two cases. My goal is to assess the salience of international influences by clarifying the role the superpowers played in expanding the opportunities for democratization by directly altering the strategic calculus of both elites and opposition forces in South Korea and Poland. The overarching goal of this article is not to challenge domestic explanations of democratic transition so much as to specify how in the Korean and Polish cases international forces interacted with domestic factors in the democratization process.

To show how US and Soviet patron-client relations influenced Korea's and Poland's democratic transition, I compare the role of superpowers in two different time periods. Both South Korean and Polish governments faced mass protests in 1980 but used the military to repress protestors and civil society. However, when widespread mass mobilization calling for democratic concessions arose again in 1987 in Korea and in 1988-1989 in Poland, both governments made concessions to the opposition, which subsequently led to a democratic transition. I contend that this difference in outcome between the two time periods is partially attributable to changing superpower policies. Absent in 1980 were credible signals from the United States and the Soviet Union to their respective client states to support political liberalization. These policies, however, changed in the late 1980s and the superpowers, as a result, affected the calculus of client state elites.

My argument proceeds as follows: In the first section, I briefly describe the "international dimensions" of democratization and develop some hypotheses about how the superpowers could in theory influence transition outcomes in their client states. In the next two sections, I apply these insights to the Korean and Polish cases with particular attention to two arenas of change from the early to late 1980s. First, the Korean and Polish regimes changed their response to mass protests. Second, the superpowers changed their reactions to pressure for democratization in their client states. The key question, therefore, is to demonstrate how these two dynamics were related.

The International Dimension

As Geoffrey Pridham has observed: "The international context is the forgotten dimension in the study of democratic transition." (1) Although international influences are recognized as potential factors in democratization processes, the difficulty in systematically analyzing international factors has led scholars to neglect this dimension and the linkages existing between the domestic and international levels. Often viewed as secondary variables with little independent effect on their own, international factors may help facilitate, retard, or provide the impetus for democratization. But by themselves, international conditions cannot "produce a successful democratic outcome unless many other conditions are simultaneously present." (2) Pinpointing exactly what effect the "international dimension" has on democratic transitions is also difficult, given the broad spectrum of international influences. International influences refer to a vast range of factors that can shape regime transition outcomes--for example, different types of international actors (foreign states, international governmental organizations [IGOs], nongovernmental organizations [NGOs], and other transnational actors), international structural conditions (such as power asymmetries, global economic conditions, and proximity to the West), the role of international norms, and the effects of diffusion and globalization. Simply stating that the international context matters is easy. Much more difficult is selecting from a long list of potential international factors which particular variables play a significant role in democratic transitions, and then determining how they actually influence or alter outcomes.

One way to approach the international dimension is to begin by establishing different types of international influences and determining which type(s) is most salient in a given case, region, or time frame. A typology provided by Laurence Whitehead has proven useful in helping scholars identify the types of international influences involved in specific cases. (3) Whitehead groups international factors into three categories: contagion, control, and consent. (4) Contagion is the most parsimonious interpretation of international effects because it ignores actors, intentions, and causal dynamics. At issue is simply whether there are "enough clusters and sequences to eliminate the possibility of random association." (5) Control, the second approach, emphasizes power politics by exploring the calculation of outside, dominant powers in the democratization process. Powerful external agents like the United States can intervene or impose, or they can use more indirect tactics, such as providing economic support in the event of political liberalization. Consent is the most complex of the three. It links external agency with the intentions and actions of domestic groups and thus develops a more nuanced understanding of the democratization process. The consent perspective embraces a number of dynamics, including international structures such as alliance systems, ties between national democratic actors with transnational groups, and international demonstration effects. (6) However, "consent" also requires working with multiple variables and elusive patterns of strategic interaction, which vary case by case. Therefore, given the complexity in specifying the relationship between international factors and democratization, scholars are naturally inclined to turn to more readily identifiable, internal aspects of democratization.

The typology provided by Whitehead provides a useful starting point by narrowing the scope of the international dimension when analyzing democratization in a specific case. The approach used in this article combines the control and consent perspectives. The control perspective, which focuses on the calculations of dominant powers when promoting (or obstructing) democracy, seems logical in super-power-client relationships, since superpowers often pressure their clients to pursue policies consistent with the superpowers' preferences. However, I agree with Whitehead and Pridham that an adequate explanation of democratic transition requires a more nuanced story--one that contains both domestic and international elements. Here, I argue that superpowers often set parameters on the behavior of their client states. Superpowers may send signals ranging from tacit (dis)approval to encouragement to direct forms of pressure that affect the bargaining strategies of the regime in the democratization process. Especially during domestic crises, it can be suggested that the signals and actions taken by the superpower interact with the client regime's preferences by changing the costs and benefits of repression. The strategic calculus of domestic elites, therefore, reacts to both domestic challenges and international patrons.

Superpowers and Democratization

Although US and Soviet influences on client states may appear self-evident, as argued earlier, analyzing the actual impact of these two actors is complicated. How can superpowers as external actors influence democratic transitions? Samuel Huntington states that the United States uses several tools--political, economic, diplomatic, and military--to promote (and occasionally hinder) democracy abroad. These pressures may come through statements given by the president, the State Department, or other high government officials. Superpower pressure can also proceed in more direct forms, such as military intervention, economic sanctions, or diplomatic action. Positive forms of democratization, such as material incentives and aid, including financial support toward the democratic opposition, are also used by the United States at times to push authoritarian regimes toward democracy. (7)

Soviet influence on democratic reforms in Eastern Europe was less direct than pressures from the United States, but the changes in Soviet domestic and foreign policy were significant enough to spark a wave of democratic transitions in the former Soviet bloc countries. The Soviet Union influenced Eastern Europe primarily through political and diplomatic means. For example, Gorbachev's revocation of the Brezhnev doctrine, public statements promoting liberalization, and signals sent to Eastern European states to follow the Soviet Union's lead (in part as a way of building external support for the Gorbachev regime) all worked to encourage Eastern European states to take steps toward democracy. It should be noted that Soviet statements indicating military intervention as a nonoption in Eastern Europe also sent signals to Eastern European regimes and opposition alike, lowering the risk associated with pushing forward with democratic reforms.

Figure 1 describes how superpower signals influence transition outcomes during crisis periods.

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As widespread protests rupture in the client regime, the regime chooses either to repress mass mobilization or appease civil society by meeting the democratic demands of protestors and/or making concessions with the opposition. However, the decision to repress or make concessions is influenced …