Dragon Dust: Atmospheric Science and Cooperation on Desertification in the Asia and Pacific Region

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Are scientific or nonscientific factors most influential in initiating international cooperation on newly emerging transboundary environmental problems in the Asia and Pacific region? In a case study of long-range atmospheric transport of dust, which is linked to desertification in China and Mongolia, the relative influence of scientific versus nonscientific factors in promoting cooperation in the region is analyzed. The study examines two dimensions of the problem--Northeast Asia and North America--and demonstrates that similar to the distance-dependence of the problem (i.e., dust concentrations decrease the greater the distance from the sources), cooperation follows a parallel relationship (i.e., motivation to cooperate decreases the greater the distance from the sources). Scientific cooperation in Northeast Asia is being institutionalized, but North America has not joined this effort. A synergy between factors must be invoked to explain this situation. In both cases, obvious and often dramatic negative impacts of massive dust storms are an enabling factor allowing more subtle science-related factors to come to the fore.

KEYWORDS: desertification, long-range transport of dust, science and policy, international environmental cooperation

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East Asia's impressive economic development in recent decades has resulted in, among other outcomes, impressive environmental problems, some of which are transboundary in nature. Transboundary environmental problems in the region include air pollution (e.g., acid rain), contamination and overfishing of regional seas (e.g., East China Sea), degradation of transboundary rivers (e.g., Mekong River), and declines in migratory bird populations (e.g., cranes). To this list can now be added dust storms and long-range atmospheric transport of dust, a form of air pollution.

Most of East Asia's transboundary environmental problems cannot be effectively addressed without international cooperation. However, such cooperation has been slow to emerge. In addition, a trans-Pacific web of cooperation is arguably emerging, albeit at an even slower pace. (1) Why is the pace of international environmental cooperation so slow? And when cooperation does emerge, what factors explain its emergence? A number of recent works tackle these questions. (2) One of the commonalities in many analyses of international environmental cooperation in East Asia is that science is posited as a primary factor inspiring cooperation, especially in the early stages. Thus, more specifically, we can ask: Are scientific or nonscientific factors most influential in initiating international cooperation on newly emerging transboundary environmental problems in the Asia and Pacific region? In this article, I distinguish and compare the influence of scientific versus nonscientific factors in a case study of the recently recognized problem of long-range transport of dust in the Asia and Pacific region, which in turn is linked to desertification in China and Mongolia (herein referred to as the "dust-desertification problem"). The relative influence of these factors in structuring state perceptions, constructing common interests, and promoting international cooperation in the Asia and Pacific region is analyzed.

Numerous works seek to differentiate the influence of scientific and nonscientific factors in regime formation and international environmental cooperation. (3) Some concentrate specifically on atmospheric issues, which are the focus of this article. (4) In addition, there is a growing number of studies of international environmental cooperation in East Asia, (5) some of which concentrate on atmospheric issues. (6) This study contributes to the literature analyzing the determinants of international environmental cooperation in East Asia, especially in its early stages, by adding a case study on the dust-desertification problem. It is, to my knowledge, the first detailed analysis of this transboundary environmental problem. In the case study, I aim to remedy some of the problems with existing work. Few of the East Asian studies examining the determinants of cooperation systematically segregate scientific from nonscientific factors and, particularly for the scientific factors, fewer still distinguish various subfactors. Science is generally taken as a single factor. On the dust-desertification problem, it turns out that no single (sub)factor explains present cooperation, especially when considered in a trans-Pacific context.

The problem of long-range transport of dust, or mineral aerosols, in the North Pacific region has two primary and separable transboundary dimensions: (1) dust transport within Northeast Asia (China-Mongolia to the Koreas and Japan), and (2) dust transport to North America (China-Mongolia to Canada and the United States). In this study, these two dimensions are treated as two distinct cases, and the relative influence of science and nonscience factors in promoting cooperation is compared within and between the two cases. There is formal and active cooperation occurring among China, Mongolia, South Korea, and Japan (the Northeast Asian case); however, the same is not true in the North American case. Comparing the influence of scientific versus nonscientific factors helps explain why.

Adding this dust-desertification case study to the collection of studies on international environmental cooperation in the Asia and Pacific region contributes to building a foundation for comparative analysis across a number of different transboundary environmental issues, a project that has not been undertaken for the region as a whole. East Asia is still deficient in regional environmental governance mechanisms, and the region spanning the Pacific Ocean is almost devoid of them. Insights into why international cooperation is or is not occurring across a broad spectrum of issues can provide valuable knowledge by which the East Asian and Pacific regions can strengthen governance of transboundary environmental problems.

I begin by outlining the methodology used in the study and then provide background on the root cause of the problem--desertification in Northeast Asia--and sketch the history of atmospheric transport of dust in the region. I then present the Northeast Asian and North American cases and conclude by discussing findings and drawing conclusions.

Methodology

The central dynamic I examine in this article is the genesis of international environmental cooperation or, alternatively, regime formation. I created a simple scheme for analyzing the relative importance of science and nonscience factors in initiating international cooperation on the dust-desertification problem. (7) The scheme is used to draw out the synergistic interaction between various (sub)factors. In addition, the concept of an "enabling factor" (a key factor that is necessary but not sufficient to explain cooperation) is introduced to help portray the synergy.

A common driver for the development of common interests and international cooperation on air pollution problems is the direct and indirect transboundary negative impacts of the pollutants. Considering mineral aerosols (dust) as an air pollutant, two types of impacts can be distinguished (these two types constitute different categories in my scheme). The first type is obvious adverse impacts (e.g., human lives lost, domesticated animals killed, property damaged, and visibility reduced). Such impacts are generally transparent and are understandable to nonexperts. An example is the consequences associated with the infamous Dust Bowl years in Canada and the United States during the 1930s. I interpret obvious impacts to be nonscience factors because they do not require scientific interpretation to be comprehensible to policymakers and the general public (though, of course, various scientific data can enhance understanding of them). Somewhat to my surprise, obvious impacts from dust storms in Northeast Asia are not the sole factor explaining cooperation in the region, but rather an enabling factor. The second type of impact is subtle adverse consequences that require expert interpretation (e.g., discerning the impact of dust in the atmosphere on climate change). These consequences may be actual or potential, whereas obvious impacts as I have defined them are always real or actual impacts. A set of eight subtle impacts of atmospheric dust are (1) altered regional and global climate, (2) increased risk to public health, (3) difficulty attaining local particulate matter (PM) standards, (4) reduced visibility in natural areas (background visibility), (5) compromised technological equipment, (6) enhanced pollutant transformation and transport, (7) microbe transport, and (8) transformed terrestrial and marine ecosystems. (8)

The second subdivision in my scheme (over and above the difference between obvious and subtle adverse impacts) is simply nonimpact elements related to both the science and nonscience categories. Nonimpact-related science factors include, for example, the desire of a state to upgrade its scientific capability, the need for data from one country to run another country's atmospheric computer models, and the uncertainty in scientific knowledge. Non-impact-related, nonscience factors include, for example, power dynamics within the state system, political and historical contexts, and availability of technological solutions. Table 1 illustrates the analytic framework used for this study.

To assess which factors were most influential on each of the states involved in the dust-desertification problem, I employed multiple data-gathering techniques, including analysis of primary and secondary documents (journal articles, policy statements, newspaper articles, workshop proceedings, and Web pages); attendance at dust-related scientific conferences; and interviews, conversations, and personal communication with various actors.

Background: Desertification in China and Mongolia

The 1994 United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) is the principal international governance structure for addressing the world's desertification problems. (9) It spells out general principles and obligations of states but contains no specific deadlines, targets, or rules. Its most innovative feature is that it obligates states to channel resources to local land users and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). The UNCCD recognizes that efforts to combat desertification must be adapted to local conditions and must be carried out by local communities, but also that these efforts need to be integrated into national and regional strategies. The primary mode for tackling desertification problems is National Action Programs (NAPs). NAPs are developed by national governments, usually in close consultation with donor organizations, NGOs, and local communities. NAPs are to be supplemented by regional and subregional programs that provide an integrated framework for tackling large-scale desertification problems. Asia is one of the designated regions in the convention. Within Northeast Asia, the only two countries experiencing significant desertification problems are China and Mongolia.

The countries in this study signed and ratified the UNCCD in the following years: China (1994/1997), Mongolia (1994/1996), South Korea (1994/1999), Japan (1994/1998), Canada (1994/1995), and the United States (1994/2000). Since the UNCCD was originally signed in 1994, desertification has become worse in China and Mongolia. Illustrative of the worsening situation is the historically increasing rate of desertification in China (Table 2) and the number of "strong" dust storms in China (Table 3).

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