Obama's Blues

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Despite enormous structural advantages for Democrats in fundraising, voter registration, and party identification, national polling and Electoral College projections continue to show that Barack Obama would eke out only the narrowest of wins over John McCain if the general election were held today. Following a brief blip of increased support after wrapping up the Democratic nomination, Obama's meager three- to four-point lead in both the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls has returned. Obama consistently runs behind and McCain runs far ahead of their respective parties in the generic presidential polls.

The distribution of Obama's support in the Electoral College gives McCain a chance at victory in November, as the …