Despite Having Spoilt the PM's Xmas Break, Jack Straw and David Blunkett Should See Their Influence on Policy Grow in 1998

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In 1998 there will almost certainly be a cabinet reshuffle. It may not be extensive, but the prospect of an ignobly early exit from the government will be enough to keep ministers on their toes. Very few can feel entirely safe, but two who definitely can are those who inadvertently spoilt the prime ministerial holiday. Indeed the influence of Jack Straw, assailed over his son's misdemeanours with cannabis, and David Blunkett, whose leaked memo about his concerns over welfare reform raised the preholiday temperature, is likely to grow over the coming year.

For on two of the big themes of 1998, constitutional reform and changes to the welfare state, the stance adopted by Blunkett and Straw will be taken as seriously by Tony Blair as those of the "Big Three" in the cabinet. Indeed the significance and influence of the two festive troublemakers is widely underestimated, while the power of the trio of giants is sometimes overplayed (Gordon Brown is the second most powerful player in the government, but Robin Cook is often abroad, while John Prescott is immersed in a giant department). Blunkett and Straw are at the heart of domestic policy and have acute political …