By Lammersen, Frans
International Trade Forum , No. 2
As the global economic recession rapidly evolves, low-income countries are facing new challenges. But the crisis is also presenting these countries with opportunities to refocus their development strategies in this changing world economy. The impacts of the crisis on their economic performance will depend on the speed and scale of the international response. The quantity and quality of aid, including Aid for Trade, are now more important than ever for economic growth and human welfare.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts that world real gross domestic product growth will fall to 2.75 per cent this year, while the World Trade Organization projects that the volume of world trade will contract by as much as 9 per cent. In this perilous climate, Aid for Trade flows to low-income countries have been growing faster than to any other income group. Most is spent on addressing infrastructure needs, in particular transport and power. Comparatively, flows to middle-income developing countries reflect their priority to build productive capacities, including trade development.
Overall, the distribution of aid across the different trade-related categories has remained relatively stable over the past year. Economic infrastructure and productive capacity building have both increased and there has been strong support for trade development programmes. Meanwhile, technical assistance has declined for trade policy and regulation. As a consequence of the economic crisis, trade-related structural adjustment programmes, while currently relatively small, are expected to increase over the medium term. Increasingly, OECD partner countries are becoming more actively involved in the Aid for Trade initiative. In general, they assess as posi-tive the impacts of Aid for Trade programmes and projects on trade performance.
Nearly all OECD partner countries report having national development strategies, with more than half prioritizing trade operations and developing action plans. Although independent surveys raise questions about this positive assessment, it is nevertheless a clear indication of the growing awareness that trade can play a positive role in promoting economic growth and reducing poverty.
These partner countries tend to identify similar binding constraints. The most common are network infrastructure, competitiveness, export diversification and trade policy analysis, negotiation and implementation. Countries are increasingly discussing their priorities with donors, who note that the success of these discussions depends critically on the extent to which trade-related priorities have been put into practice.
Without an operational trade-development strategy, it is hard to attract donor support to address specific supply-side constraints. With competing claims on limited resources, especially in times of economic crisis, it will be difficult for donors to sustain increased Aid for Trade flows without an articulated demand from partner countries. …