The role of IT in business activities has been more and more important; besides, the amount of its investment is also increasing. The key of operating businesses more effectively is to base on the operating principles and to play the role of IT systems. The application of IT systems can not only apply to business operations and maintenance, but also to social services and business competition .
Japanese companies consulting firms Shigeru Inoue  2000, proposed that the key of risk management is enterprise risk quantification, so the introduction of IT systems need to use the reorganization of business structures , and through the systematic of business processes to achieve business strategy and IT systems integration and quantification of organic. UNISYS Corporation Toshiaki Otsuka  also proposed risk management should go through the entire IT system development, testing and operation cycle. When meeting a bad objective environment, not only should we reconstruct the system, but also give the risk management throughout the system life cycle.
In order to carry out the risk management of the changes in the external environment , this article deals only with a risk quantification, to determine the percentage of operating losses, and to reduce risk through information sharing. First, the cash flow-based evaluation function which can reflect the values of IT systems is embodied; and considered the effects of IT investments and risk prediction of two non-independent IT systems such as knowledge management systems and intelligence processing systems. Knowledge management systems are the IT systems of the operational management levels, while intelligent processing systems for of IT systems which are for the purpose of knowledge discovery, personalization-depth study of levels.
This article gives the logarithmic probability …