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Beginning of article

A senior figure at Downing Street put it concisely: "One day, Tony will come in and say, 'the bad news is that I am going. And the bad news is that you are going too'."

Even Blair aides, few of whom would survive the transition to Gordon Brown, know that the moment is getting nearer. They also know that Mr Blair's desire to surprise us by announcing he is quitting when we are not expecting it is going to be much harder to achieve.

Some Blair acolytes claim the opinion polls showing Labour six or eight points behind the Tories will bring rebellious Labour MPs to their senses. I suspect they will draw a different conclusion: that Mr Blair should be on his bike …