By Paul Van Slambrouck, writer of The Christian Science Monitor
The Christian Science Monitor
When it comes to selecting presidential candidates, California has been big, but not very important. Its huge number of delegates were awarded so late in the game, they tended to ratify rather than influence the outcome.
Yet eight months before Iowans start the nomination process, the Golden State is thick with candidates: Bill Bradley is in the middle of a 10-day visit that should conclude as Democratic opponent Al Gore comes calling later this week, both of which precede the end-of- month trip by Republican George W. Bush.
All of which shows that the nation's presidential nomination process is beginning to bend to the weight of California. Specifically, a much earlier primary, an "open" voting system, and the costly media-heavy campaigning needed to do well here are all combining to influence the nature of the 2000 election, say a range of political analysts. Some of the changes are obvious. For instance, California's March 7 primary, weeks earlier than it used to be, forces candidates to get here sooner. Other changes are consistent with the evolution of presidential politics. Campaign spending, already rising, gets a further boot upward given the demands in California. And the earlier, more compressed nomination process means candidates must move faster to a broader, wholesale message that will resonate in this diverse state, as well as in New England, Southern, and Midwestern states also voting March 7. But one of the most intriguing changes may be how to calibrate a campaign for California, whose voters for the first time in a presidential primary will be allowed to vote for whomever they choose, regardless of party affiliation. Candidates will continue to receive delegates based only on voters registered with their party. But the so-called "beauty contest" aspect of the California primary, given the size and diversity of the state, could well make this primary more of a mini-general election than a nomination choice. In other words, the outcome of the overall tally, not just who won each party's nomination, could be an unusually revealing indicator of what may come in November. "The beauty contest portion of the California primary will simulate a national election more than any other state has in the past because, to win, a candidate will have to demonstrate true national reach to win everything from ... Central Valley to Silicon Valley," says Phil Trounstine, communications director for Gov. Gray Davis (D). Tony Quinn, Republican analyst and political demographer in Sacramento, agrees: "This state is so huge that what'll be important is the open vote tally, rather than just the party delegate count. …