THE DECISION-MAKING process of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is today spelt out by one of its members, amid concerns that a lack of information about the way its decisions are made could undermine the Bank's independence.
Writing in November's Economic Journal, Sir Alan Budd stresses that economic judgement plays a key role in Bank decisions, and explains that the MPC does not react to temporary changes in inflation, even if this means inflation misses its target.
Instead, Sir Alan writes, the MPC concentrates on the inflation outlook two years ahead. He says: "Focusing on a period one to two years ahead provides a practical and approximate way of meeting the Chancellor's instruction that the target is 2.5 per cent at all times while avoiding undesirable fluctuations in output." In his article, Sir Alan sets out one of the most detailed accounts to date of the MPC's decision-making process. He emphasises the importance of the Bank's 12 regional agents, three of whom brief the MPC on anecdotal and survey evidence on the Friday preceding the monthly interest-rate meeting. In this regular pre-MPC meeting, which usually lasts a full day, the committee also hears detailed evidence from Bank economists on a wide range of issues. The interest rate meeting itself is spread over two days, occupying an afternoon and the following morning. …