The Ideas Exchange: Economic View - Memo to City: If Winter Comes Can Spring Be Far Behind? ; the Time to Look for an Upturn Is Just When Markets Are at Their Lowest Ebb. like Now

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It is time to start the hunt for that elusive prey, the turning point of the business cycle. On Friday saw a particularly resonant bout of the jitters on Wall Street. That magic moment therefore must be approaching - but only if you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, but make allowance for their doubting too.

The continued existence of the cycle is one of these intriguing aspects of the economic world. You would imagine that the clever people in banks, finance ministries, corporations and markets would understand enough about economics to see both booms and busts a- coming? Maybe they could not eliminate them altogether but they ought at least to be …