Loss of Faith with Economic Models May Lead MPC Astray ; BUSINESS

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There aren't many walks of life where the admission of ignorance is considered progress. In 1987, Michael Fish famously dismissed the possibility that severe weather was on its way. Twenty years on from the Great Storm, the Met Office assure us that they no longer make such bold predictions. They recognise their uncertainty about the future, and attempt to communicate it.

The admission of ignorance can only take you so far, however. The recent floods have really brought home the need for far more precise forecasts. The Met Office believes that new, sophisticated computer systems can deliver that.

In some ways the Bank of England is a rather similar beast. …