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The Sustainability of China's Economic Performance at the Turn of the Century
Beginning of article
ABSTRACT
Reform of the Chinese economy, on a step-by-step basis began in 1978, and has proceeded remarkably well, except for some early threats of accelerating inflation and the disturbances at Tiananmen Square in 1989. The level of GDP approximately quadrupled between 1980 and 2000, but can such fast economic growth be sustained? The target of Chinese planners is to duplicate this performance between 2000 and 2020. Our high-frequency forecasting models that are in regular use on a semi-monthly basis, finds no indication at the present time, 2006, of significant deviations from the targeted path. Inflation and growth together are consistent with the sustainability goal at this …
