Which parts of the Atlantic seaboard will be swallowed by rising seas? This epa scientist can tell you. Too bad no one's listening, BY JOSH HARKINSON
FOR MOST OF the 20th century, Chesapeake Beach, Maryland, was known for its boardwalk, amusement park, and wide, sandy beaches, popular with daytrippers from Washington, DC. "The bathing beach has a frontage of three miles," boasted a tourist brochure from about 1900, "and is equal, if not superior, to any beach on the Atlantic Coast."
Today, on a cloudless spring afternoon, the resort town's sweeping view of Chesapeake Bay is no less stunning. But there's no longer any beach in Chesapeake Beach. Where there once was sand, water now laps against a seven-foot-high wall of boulders protecting a strip of pricey homes marked with "No Trespassing" signs.
Surveying the armored waterfront, Jim Titus explains how the natural sinking of the shoreline and slow but steady sea-level rise-mostly due to climate change-have driven the bay's water more than a foot higher over the past century. Reinforcing the eroding shore with a seawall held the water back, but it also choked off the natural supply of sand that had replenished the beach. What sand remained gradually sank beneath the rising water.
Titus, the Environmental Protection Agency's resident expert on sea-level rise, first happened upon Maryland's disappearing beaches 15 years ago while looking for a place to windsurf. "Having the name "beach,"* he discovered, "is not a very good predictor of having a beach." Since then, he's kept an eye out for other beach towns that have lost their namesakes-Maryland's Masons Beach and Tolchester Beach, North Carolina's Pamlico Beach, and many more. A sturdily built 54-yearold with a thick shock of hair, litus could Pass for a vacationer in his Panama hat, khakis, and polo shirt. But as he picks his way over the rocky shore, he's anything but relaxed.
For nearly 30 years, Titus has been sounding the alarm about our rising oceans. Global warming is melting polar ice, adding to the volume of the oceans, as well as warming up seawater, causing it to expand. Most climatologists expect oceans around the world to rise between 1.5 and 5 feet this century. Some of the hardest-hit areas could be in our own backyard: Erosion and a shift in ocean currents could cause water to rise four feet or more along much of the East Coast. Titus, who contributed to the Intergo vernm ental Panel on Climate Change's Nobel Prize-winning reports, has done more than anyone to determine how those rising seas will affect us and what can be done about them.
Like his occasional collaborator, nasa clini at ol o gist J am es Hansen, Titus has decided to speak out. He's crisscrossed the country to meet with state and local officials in coastal areas, urging them to start planning now for the slow-motion flood. Yet his warnings have mostly fallen on deaf ears. "We were often told by midlevel officials that their bosses did not want to plan for anything past the next election," he says.
Neither, it seems, does the federal government. Over the past decade, Titus and a team of contractors combined reams of data to construct a remarkably detailed model of how sea-level rise will impact the eastern seaboard. It was the largest such study ever undertaken, and its findings were alarming: Over the next 90 years, 1,000 square miles of inhabited land on the East Coast could be flooded, and most of the wetlands between Massachusetts and Florida could be lost. The favorably peer-reviewed study was scheduled for publication in early 2008 as part of a Bush administration report on sealevel rise, but it never saw the light of dayan omission criticized by the epa's own scientific advisory committee. Titus has urged the more science-friendly Obama administration to publish his work, but so far, it hasn't-and won't say why.
So Titus recently launched a personal website, risingsea.net, to publicize his findings. …