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The leader of the pack has become the weakest of the pack in the currency world as capital flows seek better investment opportunities elsewhere. Will that trend continue or have concerns about war and a weak U.S. economy been overdone?

When the currency outlook article was written a year ago, the United States was still reeling from the shock of the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, and a weakening economy. Most of the world was behind U.S.-led efforts to find the bad guys in Afghanistan and eliminate Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.

Despite the pressures against it, the U.S. dollar remained the strongest currency, not so much because it was supported by fundamental …