Stock Market Cycles: A Practical Explanation

Table of contents

The first page of every section is available free to non-members – click a section heading to start reading now!

• Title Page iii
• Contents v
• Acknowledgments vii
• 1 - Introduction 1
• 2 - Causal Valuation Factors 9
• Note 24
• Appendix 2A - Reported Earnings Considerations 24
• Appendix 2B - Definitions 28
• 3 - Causal Valuation Factors Interaction 31
• Appendix 3A - The Yield Curve 48
• 4 - Portfolio Asset Allocation Implications 53
• Note 70
• Appendix 4A - Sector Rotation Categories 70
• 5 - Individual Stock Price Implications 73
• 6 - Industry Life Cycle 89
• Notes 104

• Title Page iii
• Contents v
• Acknowledgments vii
• 1 - Introduction 1
• 2 - Causal Valuation Factors 9
• Note 24
• Appendix 2A - Reported Earnings Considerations 24
• Appendix 2B - Definitions 28
• 3 - Causal Valuation Factors Interaction 31
• Appendix 3A - The Yield Curve 48
• 4 - Portfolio Asset Allocation Implications 53
• Note 70
• Appendix 4A - Sector Rotation Categories 70
• 5 - Individual Stock Price Implications 73
• 6 - Industry Life Cycle 89
• Notes 104
• 7 - The Price/Earnings Multiple 105
• Appendix 7A - The Nongrowth Price/Earnings Multiple Derived 116
• Appendix 7B - The Default-Risk-Free, Nongrowth Time Horizon Duration 118
• 8 - Empirical Studies 119
• The Generation of Stock Market Cycles 120
• Abstract 120
• Introduction 120
• Conclusions 126
• References 126
• A Note on Cyclical and Dynamic Aspects of Stock Market Price Cycles 128
• References 132
• Long-Term Asset Allocation under Dynamic Interaction of Earnings and Interest Rates 133
• Abstract 133
• Introduction 133
• Conclusions 137
• References 137
• A Note on the Price Earnings Multiple 138
• Notes 141
• Time Horizon Premiums as a Measure of Stock Market Bubbles 143
• Introduction 143
• Conclusion 148
• References 148
• Endnotes 148
• The Influence of Liquidity Services on Beta 149
• Introduction 149
• References 160
• The Impact of Management Depth on Valuation 162
• Introduction 162
• Conclusion 164
• Summary 165
• Endnote 165
• Bibliography 167
• Index 171
• About the Author 175