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The Art of Conjecture

by Bertrand de Jouvenel, Nikita Lary

Pages: 307

Contributors: Bertrand de Jouvenel,Nikita Lary

Publisher: Basic Books

Place of Publication: New York

Publication Year: 1967

Subjects: Prediction (Logic)

Table of Contents

Title Page

The Art of Conjecture

Preface

Contents

Introduction

1: On the Nature of the Future

2: A Need of Our Species

3: Terminology

Part I: Personal Destiny

4: The Project

5: The Conditional

6: The Future as an Object of Knowledge

7: The Principle of Uncertainty

Part II: Of Predictions

8: Predictions: I

9: Predictions: II

10: Historical Prediction and Scientific Prediction

Part III: Ways of Conceiving the Future

11: Process and Action

12: The Changing Scene

13: Conjectures and Decisions

14: The Pragmatism of Conjecture and a Few Consequences

Part IV: Quantitative Predictions

15: On Quantification

16: Short-Term Economic Forecasting

17: Long-Term Economic Forecasting and Its Social Aspects

Part V: Toward the Surmising Forum

18: The Political Order and Foreseeability

19: The Forecasting of Ideas

20: The Surmising Forum

Index

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Books on: (Prediction Logic)

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The Pursuit of Destiny: A History of Prediction

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Causation, Prediction, and Legal Analysis

Book by Stuart S. Nagel; Quorum Books, 1986

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Assessment, Measurement, and Prediction for Personnel Decisions

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...explicit. The convergent and discriminant logic showing how the dimension relates to other...seems especially central to assessment center logic. The logic of multiple assessment is that prediction is better, because assessment is more reliable...
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Mental Logic

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Logic, Reasoning

Collections: Psychology, Philosophy, Entire Library

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Logic and Reality: Essays on the Legacy of Arthur Prior

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Why Behave? the Problem of Initiating Causes and the Goals of Prediction and Control

Journal article by Geir Overskeid; The Psychological Record, Vol. 56, 2006

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Using Prediction to Promote Mathematical Understanding and Reasoning

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Rao-Cramer Type Inequalities for Mean Squared Error of Prediction

Journal article by Tapan K. Nayak; The American Statistician, Vol. 56, 2002

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...inequalities for mean squared error of prediction. by Tapan K. Nayak 1. INTRODUCTION...is to discuss similar results for the prediction problem. For convenience of exposition...which plays a fundamental role in prediction theory. In particular, if theta is...
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Bernard Harcourt, against Prediction: Profiling, Policing, and Punishing in an Actuarial Age Chicago

Journal article by David F. Greenberg; Criminal Justice Ethics, Vol. 27, 2008

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Journal article by Courtney Everts Mykytyn; Anthropological Quarterly, Vol. 79, 2006

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Magazine Articles on: (Prediction Logic)

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Designing Markets for Prediction

Magazine article by Yiling Chen, David M. Pennock; AI Magazine, Vol. 31, Winter 2010

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...of the human race. Peer prediction systems operate by evaluating each agents prediction not against an objective...against the other agents predictions. Remarkably, under certain...the election might swing. Predictions are phrased in Boolean logic, for example "Ohio and...
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Magazine article by Kevin Kelly; Whole Earth, Summer 2002

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Applying Inductive Logic Programming to Predicting Gene Function

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Magazine article by Danise Cantlon; Teaching Children Mathematics, Vol. 5, October 1998

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Newspaper article; The Daily Mail (London, England), November 10, 2007

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Charity Prediction League. JAMIE MURRAY was on the money last week and extended Sports...totesport.com at the end of the season ... James Richardson Against all logic, Im going for a 2-1 Sunderland win (8/1). Liverpool to beat Derby...
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Newspaper article by By Victoria Pierce; Daily Herald (Arlington Heights, IL), July 27, 2008

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China's Dire Prediction

Newspaper article; The Washington Times, February 4, 2007

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Enough to Make Your Head Spin LeBron, Free-Agent Predictions All over the Board

Newspaper article; Daily Herald (Arlington Heights, IL), June 29, 2010

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...Spin LeBron, Free-Agent Predictions All over the Board. Byline...members to make definitive predictions with questionable basis in...caught up in the plethora of predictions is to remember that logic usually prevails in these...weeks ago. Thats another prediction that may be far-fetched...

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Encyclopedia Articles on: (Prediction Logic)

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Science

Encyclopedia article; The Columbia Encyclopedia, Sixth Edition, 2009

Collections: Religious Studies, Education, Psychology, History, Literature, Philosophy, Entire Library

...in turn leads by deductive logic to a number of implications...statistical methods to the prediction of its behavior. Innovations...measurements and thus on the predictions that may be made on the basis...mathematics and mathematical logic. Even a detailed account of...

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