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The Party's Choice

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The Party's Choice

by William R. Keech, Donald R. Matthews. 258 pgs.

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publication details

Contributors:

William R. Keech, Donald R. Matthews

Publisher:

Brookings Institution

Place of Publication:

Washington

Publication Year:

1976

Subjects:

Presidents--United States--Nomination

Table of contents

1.	THE PRESIDENTIAL POSSIBILITY	1
	The Complexity of Nominating Decisions	2
	Patterns of the Nominating Process	3
	The Good Candidate	5
	The Media and Money	9
	The Range of Choice	14
	The Structure of Political Opportunities	19
	Good Candidates and Good Presidents	31
II.	THE INCUMBENT LEADER	32
	Roosevelt and a Third Term: 1940	34
	Truman's Low Prestige: 1948	38
	Truman's Search for a Successor: 1952	41
	Eisenhower's Illness: 1956	45
	The Twenty-second Amendment: 1960	47
	The Dump-Johnson Movement: 1968	50
III.	THE STRUGGLE FOR A FOLLOWING	52
	The Early Leader Wins the Nomination	55
	Two Strong Contestants: 1948 , 1952	71
	No Clear Leader: 1940, 1964	77
	The Early Leader Fails: 1972	84
IV.	CONFIRMING THE LEADER	91
	The Impact of the Primaries	96
	Present and Future President: 1936, 1940, 1944, 1956, 1972	97
	Confirming the Inheritance: 1948, 1964	99
	Confirming the Heir: 1960	101
	Primaries Can Matter: 1912, 1968	101
V.	THE IMPACT OF THE PRIMARIES	111
	The Early Leader Wins the Nomination	114
	Two Strong Contenders: 1948, 1952	126
	No Clear Leader: 1940, 1964	134
	The Early Leader Fails: 1972	144
VI.	THE CONVENTION'S DECISION	157
	Consensual Nominations	160
	Semiconsensual Nominations	162
	Nonconsensual Nominations	166
	Influencing the Decision	212
VII.	THE BEST POSSIBLE CANDIDATE	214
	The Characteristics of Presidential Nominees	215
	Who Is a Presidential Possibility?	222
	The Early, Informal Nominating Stage	227
	The Formal, Legal Nominating Process	228
	Reform	241
	INDEX	251
	TABLES
	1-1. Number of Persons Who Polled at Least 1 Percent Support for Presidential Nomination, by Party and Stage of Nominating Process, 1936-72	16
	1-2. Number of Persons Who Polled at Least z Percent Support for Presidential Nomination in Consecutive Election Years, by Party, 1936-72	17
	1-3. Distribution of Nominees and Those Who Polled at Least 1 Percent Support for Presidential Nomination, by Latest Public Office Held, 1936-72	18
	1-4. Distribution of Senators and Governors Who Polled at Least 1 Percent Support for Presidential Nomination, by Length of Service, 1936-72	24
	1-5. Distribution of All Senators and Governors Who Polled at Least 1 Percent Support for President among Fellow Partisans, by Party and Size of State, 1936-72	25
	1-6. Distribution of Cabinet Officers Who Polled at Least 1 Percent Support for Presidential Nomination, by Period of Service and Office, 1936-72	29
	6-1. Strength of Willkie Gains on Each Ballot at the 1940 Republican Convention	169
	6-2. Net Shifts in Delegate Voting between the First and Second Ballots at the 1948 Republican Convention	176
	6-3. Second-Ballot Votes for Presidential Candidates at the 1948 Republican Convention, by Ideological Alignment	176
	6-4. First-Ballot Vote for Eisenhower and Taft at the 1952 Republican Convention, by Delegation Selection Procedure	178
	6-5. First-Ballot Vote for Presidential Candidates at the 1952 Republican Convention, by Governor's Commitment and Delegate Selection Procedure	180
	6-6. First-Ballot Vote for Presidential Candidates at the 1952 Republican Convention, by Delegate Selection Procedure and Ideological Alignment	184
	6-7. Second-Ballot Vote for Kefauver at the 1952 Democratic Convention, by His Standings in Primaries	186
	6-8. Vote for Goldwater at the 1964 Republican Convention, by Control of State Governorship and Delegate Selection Procedure	195
	6-9. First-Ballot Vote for Humphrey, McCarthy, and McGovern at the 1968 Democratic Convention, by Each Candidate's Standings in Primaries	199
	6-10. First-Ballot Vote for Presidential Candidates at the 1968 Democratic Convention, by Ideological Alignment	199
	6-11. Total of Delegate Votes Won by McGovern, Humphrey, and Wallace in Primary States, May 22, 1972	203
	7-1. Presidential: Nominees' Percentage of Delegate Votes on the Decisive Ballot	232
	7-2. Possible Effects of Various Apportionments of Delegate Votes on Critical Roll Calls at the Three Closest Conventions since 1936	237
	7-3. County Chairman and Rank-and-File Preferences for Presidential Nominee in the Final Gallup Poll, 1952-72 Elections	238
	FIGURES
	1-1. Pattern of Public Office Holding by Presidential Nominees, 1936-72	20
	4-1. Preferences of Democratic Rank and File for 1952 Presidential Candidates	104
	5-1. Preferences of Democratic Rank and File for 1956 Presidential Candidates	120
	5-2. Preferences of Republican Rank and File for 1948 Presidential Candidates	128
	5-3. Preferences of Republican Rank and File for 1952 Presidential Candidates	132
	5-4. Preferences of Republican Rank and File for 1940 Presidential Candidates	136
	5-5. Preferences of Republican Rank and File for 1964 Presidential Candidates	140
	5-6. Preferences of Democratic Rank and File for 1972 Presidential Candidate.	149
	6-1. Votes for Presidential Candidates on Six Ballots at the Republican Convention, 1940	169
	6-2. Voting on Successive Ballots of Twelve State Delegations Carried on the First Ballot by Dewey at the 1940 Republican Convention	171
	6-3. Voting on Successive Ballots of Eleven State Delegations Carried by Minor Candidates on the First Ballot at the 1940 Republican Convention	172
	6-4. Vote for Presidential Candidates on Three Ballots at the 1948 Repuhlican Convention	174
	6-5. Shifts in Delegates' Support for 1968 Democratic Presidential Candidates	200
	6-6. Growth of Delegate Support for 1972 Democratic Presidential Candidates	205

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The Party's Choice

by William R. Keech, Donald R. Matthews. 258 pgs.

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