Business and Economic Forecasting

Nersesian challenges traditional forecasting methods that rely strictly on econometric models, arguing that they ignore a fundamental aspect of the business cycle--human emotional responses to economic stimuli. Nersesian advocates instead the development of forecasting models that incorporate human behavior into the process, and he provides a tool--computer simulation--which can be used for this purpose. By using simulation to factor potential consumer responses into the forecasting process, Nersesian is able to tie forecasting to the consequences of human behavior and thereby determine the way in which attitudes play a role in affecting the future course of business.

Economics: Beyond the Millennium contains articles by leading authorities in various fields of economic theory and econometrics, each of whom gives an account of the current state of the art in their own field and indicate the direction that they think it will take in the next ten years. The fields covered are grouped into three categories: the microfoundations of macroeconomics, where Malinvaud evaluates the theory of resource allocation and Hildenbrand examines the empirical content of economic thories; markets and and organizations, where both Gabszewicz and D'Aspremont et al. look at imperfect competition and general equilibrium, Scotchmer and Thiess consider spatial economics, Ponssard the future of managerial economics, while Van Damme looks at the next stage of game theory; and econometrics, where Gourieroux reviews econometric modelling in general, Maravall looks at time series, Lubrand and Bauwens examine Bayesian analysis, and Blundell looks at the rapidly expanding area of microeconometrics.

This book combines both a comprehensive analytical framework and economic statistics that enable business decision makers to anticipate developing economic trends. The author blends recent and historical economic data with economic theory to provide important benchmarks or "rules of thumb" that give both economists and noneconomists enhanced understanding of unfolding economic data and their interrelationships. The extensive appendix of monthly key economic factors for 1978-1991 makes this an important reference source for economic and financial trend analysis.

Financial analysis, based on ratio analysis, has been used as a tool for analyzing the financial strength of corporations. Although ratio analysis is generally used as a univariate strategy, the accounting and finance literature has evolved to include multivariate-based models in finacial analysis, and these models can be used to explain important economic events and often predict them. Thus, in an "exhaustive coverage" of the economic events to which they can be applied, Riahi-Belkaoui discusses these models in a way that will have special value to corporate management, financial planners, and to their colleagues in the academic community who specialize in business and economic analysis.

Although sales forecasting and market analysis are the cornerstones of a firm's planning process, these two activities are frequently performed by people with little or no training in either area. Recognizing this situation, this book describes key techniques for forecasting sales and analyzing markets and uses a format aimed at an audience with limited quantitative skills. The major portion of the book covers the most widely used forecasting techniques among time series, causal, and judgmental models. The book also describes methods for identifying the potential in markets, procedures for segmenting markets, and such market analysis tools as conjoint analysis, discriminant analysis, and cluster analysis.

This book contends that central bank policy pits the Federal Reserve against consumers, creating business cycles and inflation. As the cycle proceeds, the velocity of money starts to rise, complicating the central bank's problems. Ultimately, either a depression or a runaway inflation develops. The gold standard would not alter patterns of supply and demand and would prevent business cycles and inflation. Central bank policies inevitably alter patterns of supply and demand from what they would be, based on consumer sovereignty. This changes the mix of human and physical capital available to produce a mixture of consumer goods. The economy struggles to right itself against these imbalances. Ultimately, the monetary velocity and price inflation start to rise, worsening the government's problems. In time, either a traditional depression or a runaway inflation results. The gold standard would prevent the twin evils of recession and price inflation. Investment professionals, corporate economists and others in strategic and financial planning capacities will find Mr. Marquard's book both challenging and provocative.

Medicine and business management share certain similarities, writes John Kay. For centuries, the theories behind medical practice were mostly nonsense. Doctors simply applied fashionable nostrums, bleeding one patient, starving another, and sometimes the patient got better, sometimes not. The prestige of a doctor rested more on the social rank of his patients and the confidence of his assertions than on the evidence of his cures. Much the same can be said of present-day management gurus. But there is one difference between medicine and management, Kay adds. In the last 100 years, medicine has been transformed by science. Management has not. In The Business of Economics, Kay argues that it is economics that can provide the science that management presently lacks, that economics is the natural backbone of business management. In the many insightful and lively pieces collected here, Kay looks at the application of economics to the central strategic issues facing firms--their choice of activities and markets. He is particularly interested in microeconomics, the study of markets, industries, and firms, and is on the other hand highly critical of macroeconomics, economic modeling, and economic forecasting (which he says is inevitably wrong). He is especially illuminating on the recently developed resource-based theory of strategy, which attempts to explain the success or failure of a firm in terms of its "distinctive capabilities" (the factors which differentiate them from others in the same market and which cannot be easily reproduced by competitors even when recognized.) For instance, BMW's highly skilled work force, due to Germany's high level of general education, is hard to reproduce by competitors in other countries. Kay shows how BMW exploited its highly skilled labor force (opposed to low-wage foreign workers or robots found in many other auto plants) to get a large share of the market for up-scale, high-performance cars. Among the many other topics discussed in this idea-rich book are Saatchi & Saatchi's dismal attempt to globalize in the 1980s, Honda's great success selling low-end motorcycles in the U.S., the fare of the Eurotunnel, and the reason why race-car driver Nigel Mansell makes seventy-five times as much money a year as Britain's Prime Minister, John Major. Described in Business Age as the "most important business analyst in Britain bar none," John Kay is renowned for his incisive, entertaining, and controversial columns in the Financial Times of London. In addition, he is a regular commentator on radio and TV, and is in much demand as a speaker and consultant. In The Business of Economics, he shares his thoughts on a wide range of issues facing businesses today. His clear and down-to-earth writing style informs, challenges, and entertains, and his rigorous and clever analysis of the corporate world offers insights into the business problems and decisions faced by executives and managers every day.