BACKGROUND: Because of complex interactions of climate variables at the levels of the pathogen, vector, and host, the potential influence of climate change on vector-borne and zoonotic diseases (VBZDs) is poorly understood and difficult to predict. Climate effects on the nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases are especially obscure and have received scant treatment.
OBJECTIVE: We described known and potential effects of climate change on VBZDs and proposed specific studies to increase our understanding of these effects. The nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases have received scant treatment and are emphasized in this paper.
DATA SOURCES AND SYNTHESIS: We used a review of the existing literature and extrapolations from observations of short-term climate variation to suggest potential impacts of climate change on VBZDs. Using public health priorities on climate change, published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we developed six specific goals for increasing understanding of the interaction between climate and VBZDs and for improving capacity for predicting climate change effects on incidence and distribution of VBZDs.
CONCLUSIONS: Climate change may affect the incidence of VBZDs through its effect on four principal characteristics of host and vector populations that relate to pathogen transmission to humans: geographic distribution, population density, prevalence of infection by zoonotic pathogens, and the pathogen load in individual hosts and vectors. These mechanisms may interact with each other and with other factors such as anthropogenic disturbance to produce varying effects on pathogen transmission within host and vector populations and to humans. Because climate change effects on most VBZDs act through wildlife hosts and vectors, understanding these effects will require multi-disciplinary teams to conduct and interpret ecosystem-based studies of VBZD pathogens in host and vector populations and to identify the hosts, vectors, and pathogens with the greatest potential to affect human populations under climate change scenarios.
KEY WORDS: anthropogenic disturbance, climate change, infectious diseases, reservoir, vector, vector-borne disease, wildlife, zoonotic disease. Environ Health Perspect 118:1507-1514 (2010). doi:10.1289/ehp.0901389 [Online 24 June 2010]
The concept that weather and climate are linked to the incidence of infectious diseases in humans has been recognized since the time of Hippocrates (National Research Council 2001). Understanding the link between climate and disease has increasing urgency. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007), warming of the earth's climate is "unequivocal." Global changes already documented include increased global surface temperature, rising sea level, decreased arctic and alpine snow and ice, and evidence of plants and animals responding to these changes by moving to higher elevations or closer to the poles. Precipitation has increased in some parts of the world while decreasing in others. These changes are predicted to continue into the foreseeable future (IPCC 2007).
Climate change is predicted to have a variety of impacts on human health, many of which have been extensively reviewed (Confalonieri et al. 2007; Ebi et al. 2006, 2008; Frumkin et al. 2008; Patz and Olson 2006). Some of these effects are easily intuited: increasing temperatures will likely increase the incidence of heat-related mortality (and decrease the risk mortality from cold exposure); increased drought will result in increased food and water shortages, whereas more frequent and more severe heavy precipitation events will increase the incidence of flood-related injuries and deaths, water- and food-borne illness, and other infectious, respiratory, and skin diseases.
Another class of potential impacts on human health often cited as a consequence of climate change is less direct, …