Economic Trends

Economic Trends is a monthly economic journal that provides analyses of current economic developments. Its audience consists of economists, bankers and those studying economics. Founded in 1979, Economic Trends has a circulation of about 8,800 and is non-paid. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publishes this periodical.

Articles from May

Fourth District Bank Holding Companies
04.13.09 [GRAPHIC OMITTED] [GRAPHIC OMITTED] A bank holding company (BHC) is a legal entity that owns a controlling interest in a commercial bank, often in addition to other financial and nonbank subsidiaries. BHCs range in size, but all are...
Fourth District Employment Conditions, March 2009
04.30.09 [GRAPHIC OMITTED] [GRAPHIC OMITTED] The District's unemployment rate increased 0.5 percentage point to 9.3 percent for the month of March. The increase in the unemployment rate is attributed to an increase of the number of people...
How Realistic Were the Economic Forecasts Used in the Stress Tests?
05.12.09 The results of the "stress tests" came out last Thursday, and we can now see what three months of intense scrutiny of 19 of the countries' largest bank holding companies has revealed about the amount of capital they are likely to need to...
Involuntary Part-Time Workers and the Deficiencies of the Unemployment Rate
05.07.09 The Bureau of Labor Statistics' March employment report had very few positive things to say about the labor market. Employers slashed an additional 663,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate climbed 0.4 percentage point, from 8.1 percent to...
Is the Housing Bust Over?
05.12.09 [GRAPHIC OMITTED] [GRAPHIC OMITTED] [GRAPHIC OMITTED] It was early 2006 that housing markets did their abrupt turnaround, transitioning from a period of increasing prices and sales to one where both prices and sales were in a near...
March Price Statistics
04.23.09 The CPI decreased at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent in March, pulling the 12-month growth rate down to -0.4 percent. Much of the decrease was due to reductions in energy prices, as fuel oil and other types of fuel prices fell 61.6 percent...
Mighty Bad Recessions
05.04.09 [GRAPHIC OMITTED] No two recessions are exactly alike. They differ in terms of their depth and duration, their diffusion across various industries, and the economic shocks that set them off. Nevertheless, recessions often share basic...
Real GDP: First-Quarter 2009 Advance Estimate
05.04.09 [GRAPHIC OMITTED] Real GDP decreased at an annualized rate of 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, slightly less negative than the fourth quarter's -6.3 percent, but coming in worse than consensus expectations. The resulting four-quarter...
The Changing Composition of Consumption
05.04.09 [GRAPHIC OMITTED] It is no secret that some households are being hit hard in the current recession. Nonfarm payroll employment is down about 3.5 percent over the last year. Real personal income is down 0.3 percent over the same time...
The Employment Situation, April 2009
05.12.09 [GRAPHIC OMITTED] Nonfarm payroll employment declined by a less-than-expected 539,000 in April, boosted by federal government hiring and smaller-than-expected losses across many private industries. While still very large, the loss was...
The Yield Curve, April 2009
04.29.09 Since last month, the yield curve has twisted steeper, with short rates dropping and long rates rising. The difference between short and long rates, the slope of the yield curve, has achieved some notoriety as a simple forecaster of economic...