Brookings Papers on Economic Activity

Articles from Spring

An Analysis of Russia's 1998 Meltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals
ON AUGUST 17, 1998, a little more than a month after an international package of emergency financing and economic reforms was announced, Russia was forced to devalue the ruble.(1) Russia also declared its intention to restructure all official domestic...
A Portfolio View of the U.S. Current Account Deficit
FROM 1971 TO 1982 THE U.S. current account balance as a share of U.S. GNP averaged roughly zero.(1) Starting in 1983, however, the United States experienced increasingly large current account deficits, which reached 3.3 percent and 3.4 percent of GNP...
Does Immigration Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market?
MOST STUDIES OF the economic impact of immigration are motivated by the desire to understand how immigrants affect various dimensions of economic status in the population of the host country. This motivation explains the persistent interest in determining...
Editors' Summary
THE BROOKINGS PANEL on Economic Activity held its seventy-first conference in Washington, D.C., on March 29 and 30, 2001. This issue of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity includes the papers and discussions presented at the conference. The first...
Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? Will It Be Sustained?
IT IS ESTIMATED that in 2001 the U.S. current account deficit will reach $450 billion, or 4.4 percent of GDP, up from 3.6 percent in 1999.(1) Current account balance was last achieved in 1991 (1981 if Gulf War-related special receipts are excluded...
The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit
FOR MORE THAN twenty years the world's richest, most mature industrial economy has drawn heavily on the world's limited pool of saving to support high consumption--in the 1980s by the federal government, and in the 1990s by households. Over the past...
The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility
SINCE THE EARLY 1980S the U.S. economy has gone through two long expansions. The first, from 1982 to 1990, lasted thirty-one quarters. The second started in 1991 and, although showing signs of faltering, has recorded its fortieth quarter as this volume...
The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment
THE MONTHLY RELEASE of the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) by the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan is featured in the financial press with much fanfare, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. Yet the conventional wisdom...