Demographic Research

Articles from Vol. 19, July-December

Adult Mortality and Children's Transition into Marriage
AbstractAdult mortality due to HIV/AIDS and other diseases is posited to affect children through a number of pathways. On top of health and education outcomes, adult mortality can have significant effects on children by influencing demographic outcomes...
Adult Mortality in a Rural Area of Senegal: Non-Communicable Diseases Have a Large Impact in Mlomp
AbstractThis study provides original estimates of adult mortality in Mlomp, a rural population of Senegal which has been monitored for twenty years. Causes of death are assessed through verbal autopsies which are completed by medical information. Between...
Albania: Trends and Patterns, Proximate Determinants and Policies of Fertility Change
AbstractFor a very long time, Albania has had one of the highest levels of fertility in Europe: in 2002 the total fertility rate of 2.2 children per woman was the highest in Europe. Although this current level is high, the country has experienced a rapid...
An Integrated Approach to Cause-of-Death Analysis: Cause-Deleted Life Tables and Decompositions of Life Expectancy
AbstractThis article integrates two methods that analyze the implications of various causes of death for life expectancy. One of the methods attributes changes in life expectancy to various causes of death; the other method examines the effect of removing...
A Transition-Based Approach to Measuring Inequality
AbstractThe measurement of inequality is often made using observed population-based distributions, such as the distribution of income or the distribution of members of different groups across neighborhoods. Unfortunately, such population distributions...
Austria: Persistent Low Fertility since the Mid-1980s
AbstractThis chapter offers an in-depth analysis of fertility in Austria, a country which has experienced a low and relatively stable fertility level and a gradual postponement of childbearing since the mid-1980s. We begin by summarising Austrian population...
Beyond Denomination: The Relationship between Religion and Family Planning in Rural Malawi
AbstractDespite the centrality of religion and fertility to life in rural Africa, the relationship between the two remains poorly understood. The study presented here uses unique integrated individual- and congregational-level data from rural Malawi...
Biodemography Comes of Age
AbstractBiodemography has emerged and grown over the last fifteen years, with loyal and far-sighted support from its patrons. As it enters what might be called its adolescence as a field, it faces challenges along with abounding opportunities. One challenge...
Biodemography: Research Prospects and Directions
AbstractThe purpose of this opinion report is to outline what I consider to be the most promising areas for future biodemographic research and to suggest ways in which the field can be moved forward. I suggest ideas grouped around five major themes including...
Biological and Sociological Interpretations of Age-Adjustment in Studies of Higher Order Birth Rates
AbstractSeveral studies of the effect of education on second or third birth rates (e.g. Hoem et al. (2001)) have used the concept of relative age at previous birth (B. Hoem (1996)). B. Hoem's idea was to focus on the social meaning of age at previous...
Blame the Parents? the Association between Parental Longevity and Successful Ageing
AbstractResearch has suggested that children of long-lived parents might age more successfully than children of short-lived parents. The aim of this study is to contribute further to the understanding of the association between parental longevity and...
Bulgaria: Ethnic Differentials in Rapidly Declining Fertility
AbstractThis chapter provides a detailed description of the fertility changes in Bulgaria during recent decades and discusses possible reasons and consequences. It also gives an overview of the steps that the government has undertaken to offset the considerable...
Children's School Participation and HIV/AIDS in Rural Malawi: The Role of Parental Knowledge and Perceptions
AbstractStudies of the relationship between HIV/AIDS and children's educational attainment largely focus on the direct impacts of parental illness and death, overlooking the potential indirect impact that parental knowledge and perceptions of their HIV...
Cohabitation and Children's Living Arrangements: New Estimates from the United States
AbstractThis paper uses the 1995 and 2002 waves of the National Survey of Family Growth to examine recent trends in cohabitation in the United States. We find increases in both the prevalence and duration of unmarried cohabitation. Cohabitation continues...
Creative Providers: Counseling and Counselors in Family Planning and Reproductive Health
AbstractThis paper examines family planning and reproductive health counseling using qualitative data from four sites. Skillful counselors are creative. They improvise on counseling protocols that are never more than bare bones outlines. They also perform...
Czech Republic: A Rapid Transformation of Fertility and Family Behaviour after the Collapse of State Socialism
AbstractFollowing the swift demise of the state-socialist regime in 1989, a profound transformation of family and fertility patterns has taken place in the Czech Republic. Family formation has been postponed and period fertility rates have fallen to...
Educational Differences in All-Cause Mortality by Marital Status - Evidence from Bulgaria, Finland and the United States
AbstractUsing life table measures, we compare educational differentials in all-cause mortality at ages 40 to 70 in Bulgaria to those in Finland and the United States. Specifically, we assess whether the relationship between education and mortality is...
England and Wales1: Stable Fertility and Pronounced Social Status Differences
AbstractFor nearly three decades, the total fertility rate in England and Wales has remained high relative to other European countries, and stable at about 1.7 births per woman. In this chapter, we examine trends in both period and cohort fertility throughout...
Fertility of Turkish and Moroccan Women in the Netherlands: Adjustment to Native Level within One Generation
AbstractCohort data by generation for Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands indicate that the first generation adjust their fertility levels only slowly to that of native Dutch women. These women show even higher rates than presently reported...
France: High and Stable Fertility
AbstractThe current total fertility rate in France is around 1.9 children per woman. This is a relatively high level by current European standards and makes France an outlier, despite the fact that its other demographic trends, especially conjugal behaviour,...
Gender Roles and Values of Children: Childless Couples in East and West Germany
AbstractPresuming that not just economic circumstances but also ideational factors influence fertility decisions, the paper examines the values of children of East and West-German childless men and women living with a partner. Based on the survey about...
Germany: Family Diversity with Low Actual and Desired Fertility
AbstractGermany is a low-fertility country with a rapidly ageing population, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. There are several reasons for this trend. Germany is among the countries with the highest rates of childlessness in the world,...
Hotspots and Coldspots: Household and Village-Level Variation in Orphanhood Prevalence in Rural Malawi
AbstractWe explore the characteristics of households and villages in which orphans are resident in two areas of Malawi. We first review pertinent themes in qualitative data collected in our research sites. Then, using spatial analysis, we show how positive...
How Can Economic Schemes Curtail the Increasing Sex Ratio at Birth in China?
AbstractFertility decline, driven by the one-child policy, and son preference have contributed to an alarming difference in the number of live male and female births in China. We present a quantitative model where people choose to sex-select because...
Human Biodemography: Some Challenges and Possibilities for Aging Research1
AbstractThis opinion report - in a series on the future of biodemography - focuses on promising areas that I think will be valuable to develop in the future in order to get a better understanding of the determinants of the health and well-being of elderly...
Hungary: Secular Fertility Decline with Distinct Period Fluctuations
AbstractIn this study, we demonstrate from different angles that Hungarian fertility basically decreased between 1965 and 2005, but also clearly fluctuated, and showed different patterns in the different periods within this epoch. As a result, the clear...
Indonesia against the Trend? Ageing and Inter-Generational Wealth Flows in Two Indonesian Communities
AbstractIndonesian family systems do not conform to the prevailing image of Asian families, the predominant arrangements being nuclear and bilateral, with an important matrilineal minority. This paper considers the strength of family ties in two communities,...
Italy: Delayed Adaptation of Social Institutions to Changes in Family Behaviour
AbstractConsidering its very low fertility and high age at childbearing, Italy stands alone in the European context and can hardly be compared with other countries, even those in the Southern region. The fertility decline occurred without any radical...
Lithuania: Fertility Decline and Its Determinants
AbstractSince the beginning of the 1990s, Lithuania has been undergoing significant transformations in family life and has experienced a precipitous decline in fertility. The determinants of the changes are diverse in character and are associated with...
Men's Childbearing Desires and Views of the Male Role in Europe at the Dawn of the 21st Century
AbstractThe development of modern family patterns of the past decades has been accompanied by substantial changes in social norms, values and gender relations. There is theoretical support for the assumption that the persistence of low fertility levels...
Overview Chapter 1: Fertility in Europe: Diverse, Delayed and below Replacement
AbstractEarly in the 21st century, three-quarters of Europe's population lived in countries with fertility considerably below replacement. This general conclusion is arrived at irrespective of whether period or cohort fertility measures are used. In...
Overview Chapter 2: Parity Distribution and Completed Family Size in Europe: Incipient Decline of the Two-Child Family Model?1
AbstractBy the end of the 20th century the two-child family became the norm throughout Europe. Between 40 and over 50 percent of women in the 1950s and 1960s cohorts had two children. There were some incipient signs that shares of two-child families...
Overview Chapter 3: Birth Regulation in Europe: Completing the Contraceptive Revolution
AbstractEarly in the 21st century modern contraception - primarily hormonal methods, advanced IUDs, sterilization and condoms - has become the main instrument of birth regulation in Northern and Western Europe and gaining ground in Southern Europe and...
Overview Chapter 4: Changing Family and Partnership Behaviour: Common Trends and Persistent Diversity across Europe
AbstractFollowing the era of the 'golden age of marriage' and the baby boom in the 1950s and 1960s, marriage has declined in importance, and its role as the main institution on which family relations are built has been eroded across Europe. Union formation...
Overview Chapter 5: Determinants of Family Formation and Childbearing during the Societal Transition in Central and Eastern Europe
AbstractSocietal conditions for early and high rates of childbearing were replaced by conditions generating late and low levels of fertility common in Western countries. Central among factors shaping the latter behaviour (job insecurity, unstable partnership...
Overview Chapter 6: The Diverse Faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe
AbstractThis chapter discusses the concept of the second demographic transition (SDT) and its relevance for explaining the ongoing changes in family and fertility patterns across Europe. It takes a closer look at the shifts in values and attitudes related...
Overview Chapter 7: The Rising Importance of Migrants for Childbearing in Europe
AbstractThis contribution looks at the influence of immigration on childbearing trends in the countries of Western, Northern and Southern Europe, which have received relatively large numbers of immigrants during the last decades. It analyses the contribution...
Overview Chapter 8: The Impact of Public Policies on European Fertility
AbstractThis chapter outlines the positions in the current debate about the possibility of using public policies to influence fertility. We note the polarization between, on the one hand, those who view public policies as obvious means for lifting the...
Poland: Fertility Decline as a Response to Profound Societal and Labour Market Changes?
AbstractThis article opens with a review of the main trends in family-related behaviour, i.e. fertility decline and changes in fertility patterns, a decreasing propensity to marry, postponement of marriage, and a slowly increasing frequency of divorces...
Polygyny and HIV in Malawi
AbstractWe review the relationship between polygyny and HIV and identify a positive individual-level correlation, and a negative ecological correlation. We subsequently examine two mechanisms that contribute to the individual-level correlation. First,...
Postponement and Childlessness: Evidence from Two British Cohorts
AbstractThis paper starts by reviewing existing projections of childlessness among British men and women. Low current fertility implies high eventual childlessness unless the postponement of parenthood is taken into account. Such re-timing of first births...
Preface: Childbearing Trends and Policies in Europe
The editors of the present Special Collection of the electronic journal Demographic Research take pleasure in making the Collection available to the research community and the general public. The Collection's principal focus is the demographic analysis...
Repartnering after Marital Dissolution: Does Context Play a Role?
AbstractThis paper examines in depth the determinants of repartnering in Italy. With data from a national survey conducted in 2003, the effects of socio-economic, demographic and contextual characteristics on second-union formation among separated women...
Romania: Childbearing Metamorphosis within a Changing Context
AbstractIn 1989, the socialist regime in Romania collapsed and the state's coercive pro-natalist policy ended. Since then, fertility has gone through major changes, namely, a massive reduction in fertility and important structural changes: birth postponement,...
Russian Federation: From the First to Second Demographic Transition
AbstractThe demographic transition in Russia was accelerated by several social cataclysms during the "Soviet type" modernization. Frequent changes in the timing of births and marriages engendered a mass "abortion culture". Contraceptive devices of poor...
Slovakia: Fertility between Tradition and Modernity
AbstractIn the last 60 years, Slovakia has experienced comparatively high and most recently very low fertility, long periods of stable fertility alternating with periods of changes, periods of substantial as well as lesser state interventions. Fertility...
Slovenia: Generous Family Policy without Evidence of Any Fertility Impact
AbstractSlovenia was not a typical socialist country; the transformation that had started at the end of the 1980s did not cause such great turbulences as in other countries in transition. However, unfavorable consequences did accompany the transition,...
Sources of Error and Bias in Methods of Fertility Estimation Contingent on the P/F Ratio in a Time of Declining Fertility and Rising Mortality
AbstractThe most commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the use of the P/F ratio, first proposed by Brass. In essence, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong,...
Spain: Short on Children and Short on Family Policies
AbstractSpain's total fertility rate has more than halved since 1975, when it was 2.8, to the present 1.3 (the lowest rate on record, 1.2, was reached in 1995). At the same time, the mean age at first childbirth has grown continually, seriously hindering...
Summary and General Conclusions: Childbearing Trends and Policies in Europe
1. IntroductionEuropean fertility early in the 21st century was at its lowest level since the Second World War. This study explores contemporary childbearing trends and policies in Europe, and gives detailed attention to the past two or three decades....
Sweden: Combining Childbearing and Gender Equality
AbstractSweden is the forerunner of the Second Demographic Transition. Fertility trends have fluctuated greatly since the 1960s, and the 1990s showed both European-highest and lowest-ever-in-Sweden levels, while the cohort pattern has been relatively...
The Effects of Regional Socioeconomic and Cultural Characteristics on the Spatial Patterns of the Second Demographic Transition in Finland
AbstractThe article studies to what extent regional socioeconomic and cultural characteristics explain spatial patterns in the Second Demographic Transition in Finland. The country's 75 functional regions are used as area units. A summary indicator of...
The Influence of Parents on Cohabitation in Italy: Insights from Two Regional Contexts
AbstractIn view of the demographic changes that affect all European countries, the diffusion of new living arrangements such as non-marital cohabitation is particularly interesting. In this article we concentrate on Italy, a country that is characterized...
The Modal Age at Death and the Shifting Mortality Hypothesis
AbstractThe modal age at death is used to study the shifting mortality scenario experienced by low mortality countries. The relations of the life table functions at the modal age are analyzed using mortality models. In the models the modal age increases...
The Netherlands: Childbearing within the Context of a "Poldermodel" Society
AbstractThe Netherlands has seen a considerable decline of the period total fertility rate and delayed childbearing, just like all other European countries. The drop in fertility, however, has not been as sharp as in many other regions of Europe. The...
The Timing and Partnership Context of Becoming a Parent: Cohort and Gender Commonalities and Differences in Childhood Antecedents
AbstractThis paper uses two British birth cohorts, born in 1958 and 1970. There are substantial inter-cohort shifts in timing and context of becoming a parent and gender differences in timing. We use common childhood measures for the two cohorts, pool...
Top-Down and Bottom-Up Research in Biodemography
AbstractThe most efficient way to make scientific progress in biodemography is to encourage bi-directional exchange between 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' research. This will entail exchange along the continuum of research from microscopic intracellular...
Trends in Educational Mortality Differentials in Austria between 1981/82 and 2001/2002: A Study Based on a Linkage of Census Data and Death Certificates
AbstractBackground-Many studies for European populations found an increase in socio-economic mortality differentials during the last decades of the 20th century, at least in relative terms. The aim of our paper is to explore the situation in Austria,...
Trends in Living Arrangements in Europe: Convergence or Divergence?
AbstractThis article uses data from the Labour Force Surveys to examine trends in the living arrangements of European men and women aged 20 to 75 between 1987 and 2002. Some trends, like the decline in mean household size and the increase in living as...
Ukraine: On the Border between Old and New in Uncertain Times
AbstractThis chapter provides an overview of the demographic situation in Ukraine, including explanations for the decline to very low fertility and changes in family policy. Drawing on official statistics, survey data, and focus group interviews, the...
Union Formation and Fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: A Life Table Description of Recent Trends
AbstractThe paper provides an extensive descriptive analysis and comparison of recent trends in union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia. The analysis is based on data from the Generation and Gender Surveys (GGS) carried out in 2004. We generate...
Women's Changing Socioeconomic Position and Union Formation in Spain and Portugal
AbstractEconomic and sociological theories of marriage have long emphasized the impact of women's education and employment on union formation. In this study, we explore the relevance of the female economic independence hypothesis to explain women's patterns...