The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems

Articles from Vol. 12, No. 4, Winter

Analyzing and Reporting Forecast Performance
Most individuals who are, or have been, responsible for generating sales forecasts have been hard pressed to prepare the most realistic and accurate projections utilizing a variety of quantitative and subjective methodologies. Much time and effort is...
Consensus Forecasts of Financial Institutions
Based on a Winter survey of financial economists look for continued economic expansion--at a normal pace. Disposable income and consumer spending will move up. A slowly expanding economy will lead to declines in the number of unemployed. Declining oil...
Employment Adjustments Resulting from Increased Global Competition Weaken Growth in the Industrial Countries
I. Economic OutlookAlthough output in the world economy is projected to expand by 3.3% in 1994 and 4% in 1995, the industrial countries, which had been expected to lead the global economy out of the recession, are forecast to experience modest economic...
Forecasting Error of Value Line Weekly Forecasts
Weekly Value Line earnings per share (EPS) forecasts are analyzed. The distribution of forecast error is not normal. Therefore, non-parametric statistical tests should be used. Forecasts are systematically optimistic and particularly so during the last...
Forecasting for the Automotive Aftermarket
This article presents a theoretical framework for forecasting automotive aftermarket products (components or assemblies used to remanufacture, rebuild, or repair products), using demographic data and other external elements such as replacement rates...
Positioning Sales Forecasting for Better Results
The Nineties have been called the Information Decade. During this period, information will become one of the most important commodities in the business environment. The companies with the best information will prosper over their competition. The need...
The Changing Role of Forecasting in Electric Utilities
Electric utilities are faced with the need to rethink their corporate mission and their objectives in light of the changing environment of their industry. They have to decide where they want to go. Since the oil embargoes in the 1970's, government interest...
U.S. Corporate Earnings Forecast - Major Market Indexes
The Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/B/E/S) maintains a database of earnings forecasts from over 2,375 security analysts affiliated with 170 institutional research and brokerage firms, following 4,212 companies. According to the December data,...
U.S. Economic and Industrial Outlooks Kent Model Forecasts
This year, economy is expected to expand by 3% and in 1995 by 3.2%. Data point to a moderate growth. In 1994, main factors pushing the economy forward are expected to be consumer spending, business capital outlays, and residential construction. In 1995,...
What You Should Know about Regression Based Forecasting
Regression analysis is a very useful modeling tool for business forecasting. Both forecast preparers and forecast users should know the basics of regression based forecasting, which is the subject of this article.WHAT IS A REGRESSION MODEL?Regression...