The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems

Articles from Vol. 14, No. 1, Spring

Consensus Forecasts of Financial Institutions
The latest consensus forecast sees the "soft landing" moving on into early 1996. Higher interest rates will take a bite out of consumer spending--especially in autos and housing. The expectation is for interest rates to decline slightly in early 1996....
Do You Need an Early Warning System?
Forty years ago, a group of construction crews ventured out into the empty, frozen tracts of the Arctic. Using the "high technology" of their day, they built a network of radar stations that could spot approaching aircraft from hundreds of miles away....
Economic Forecasting in a Business Environment
Leaders of important enterprises are often heard to have remarked, "If I had only known--, I would have chosen a different strategy." The blank may have been end of the Cold War, downsizing of the defense establishment, the run-up of interest rates,...
Forecasters' Legal Problems: How Can They Protect Themselves
Forecasters have one of three relationships with the users of forecasts, their "intellectual product." They may be hired to create and provide forecasts for an employer or work as an independent contractor for a client. Each of these two in turn may...
Forecasting and Market Analysis Techniques: A Practical Appr
George J. Kress and John Snyder. Forecasting and Market Analysis Techniques: A Practical Approach. Westport, Connecticut and London: Quorum, 1994, pp. 286.Kress and Snyder have written a book intended for practitioners of forecasting, especially those...
Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles
Michael P. Niemira, and Philip A. Klein. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1994, pp. 526.By James CicarelliAs paradoxical as it may seem, Niemira and Klein have written a book that should appeal to novice...
International Economic Outlook
I. Economic OutlookOne of the most important features of economic development in the world economy during the nineties has been the creation of many new regional trading arrangements and the strengthening or enlargement of existing economic blocs. There...
Predicting Net Revenues from State Supported Lotteries
State supported lotteries can be an important source of revenue, but not for every state. As of 1990 states such as Arkansas, Mississippi, North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and Wyoming probably cannot obtain substantial net revenue from a lottery....
Resampling: The New Statistics
Julian L. Simon, Resampling: The New Statistics, Arlington, VA: Resampling Stats. Inc., 1992, pp. 261.Familiarity with statistical concepts if not competence with statistical procedures and their application is a requirement in most university business...
Taking the Con out of Economic Forecasting
Membership in the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), the leading trade group for the economics profession, peaked in 1983 at about 3,800 members; since 1983, however, membership has declined almost monotonically, standing at roughly...
The Realities of Business Forecasting
When discussing business forecasting with practitioners, I am astonished at what little they know in general about forecasting. This is particularly discouraging given the current economic climate that is putting more and more emphasis on lower inventories...
U.S. Corporate Earnings Forecast: Major Market Indexes
The March survey of 2,400 security analysts affiliated with nearly 200 institutional brokerage and research firms, conducted by the Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/B/E/S--U.S. edition), is forecasting an 21.2% increase in U.S. corporate operating...
U.S. Economic and Industrial Outlook: Kent Model Forecasts
This year's rate of growth of the economy is expected to be 3.1% In 1996 it will decline to 2.9%. The inflation outlook calls for a 3.0% rise in the overall price level, measured by the GDP price deflator. Next year prices will increase faster--3.2%...