Conversion Survey, 1998: Global Disarmament, Defense Industry Consolidation and Conversion

By Bonn International Center For Conversion | Go to book overview

been chosen for its simplicity; any other weighting of indices, or a complex statistical procedure such as a factor analysis, would reduce the transparency of the procedure. The index by region is calculated using the same procedure as for the regional data shown in A1 to A4.

The BIC3D Index values should be interpreted as a measure of the general reduction or increase in military resource use between the base period--the last years of the Cold War and its immediate aftermath--and a chosen later year. It gives an impression of the quantitative level of resources available and, thus, in need of conversion. The comparison of BIC3D indices for differing end years indicates whether the process of disarmament--or armament, if that was the earlier trend--is continuing or has been reversed.

Additional data, such as on base Closures or military research and development, would have been beneficial in measuring more dimensions of conversion but unfortunately, at the present time, such data is not quantifiable on a global scale. The index also fails to reflect the relationship between resources freed and the general size of an economy--it does not directly measure the relative urgency of conversion; additional data from the civilian sector would have been necessary for such an assessment.


References

Cooper, Julian. 1993. "The Soviet Union and the successor republics: Defence industries coming to terms with disunion." In Wulf, 1993, pp. 87-108.

Institute for Disarmament and Development Studies (IDDS). Arms Control Reporter. Monthly updates. Boston: IDDS.

International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Military Balance. Annual. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). Government Finance Statistics Yearbook. Annual. Washington. DC: IMF.

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). SIPRI Yearbook. Annual. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA). World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers. Annual. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

World Bank. World Development Report. Annual. New York: Oxford University Press

Wulf, Herbert. 1993. Arms Industry Limited. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

-287-

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