Lending Credibility: The International Monetary Fund and the Post-Communist Transition

By Randall W. Stone | Go to book overview
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Contents
List of Figures xi
List of Tables xiii
List of Acronyms xv
Preface xix
1. Introduction 1
1.1.
The Strategy of Transition: Inflation and Democracy 6
1.2.
What Would We Like the IMF to Do? 10
I. Models and Data 13
2. A Formal Model of Lending Credibility 15
2.1.
The Model 21
2.2.
The Equilibrium 22
2.3.
Hypotheses Derived from the Formal Model 26
2.4.
Conclusions 27
Appendix: A Formal Model of Lending Credibility 29
3. Studying IMF Effectiveness 39
3.1.
Previous Research 39
3.2.
Critiques Raised in the Literature 46
3.3.
New Critiques 48
3.4.
Research Design 49
3.5.
Conclusions 58
4.
An Empirical Test of the Model 59
4.1.
Models of IMF Lending Decisions 60
4.2.
Covariates of the Duration of Punishment Intervals 61
4.3.
Covariates of Program Suspensions 67
4.4.
Models of Policy Variables 73
4.5.
Conclusions 84

-vii-

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