Health and Mortality among Elderly Populations

By Graziella Caselli; Alan D. Lopez | Go to book overview

14 Evaluation of Standard Mortality Projections for the Elderly

FRANS VAN POPPEL AND JOOP DE BEER


14.1. Introduction

Success can have negative repercussions. Until very recently, demographers emphasized time and again that the popular press and some social science literature overplayed the importance of mortality decline as the cause of the increase in the older population. Their efforts to convince the public that the responsibility for the ageing of the population could not be attributed to the increase in life expectancy have been so succesful that, nowadays, common sense tends to neglect the real effects that changes in mortality can have on population ageing ( Crimmins, 1986: 193; Caselli and Vallin, 1990: 2).

In the more recent past, however, a more balanced situation has arisen. It is now realized that the demographic analyses, on which the statements on the influence of the mortality decline on the ageing of the population were based, were selective in nature and did not relate to levels of mortality that are relevant for current conditions in Western societies. As a consequence, demographers began to pay much more attention to the role of mortality in past and future population changes.

The mortality patterns of the old attracted particular attention. That had, among other things, to do with the fact that the socio-economic consequences of population ageing had become a central area of research. It was realized that the size of the oldest old population depended in large part on the trend of mortality. Demographers also drew attention to the fact that mortality changes in industrialized countries appeared to be less smooth and gradual than had been expected. It had also been proposed that a reduction in the risk of death at high ages could expose the survivors to an increase in the number of years spent in a state of frail health ( Olshansky, 1988). As a consequence of this, the former notion that mortality was the least problematic of the three components of population change--because it tended to change only slowly and relatively evenly, and because the errors in the projected populations caused by incorrect mortality assumptions were small compared with errors caused by wrong fertility or migration assumptions--has been abandoned. Providing reasonable forecasts of mortality has become a central issue in population forecasting. Many studies have been published dealing with mor-

-288-

Notes for this page

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items

Items saved from this book

This book has been saved
Highlights (0)
Some of your highlights are legacy items.

Highlights saved before July 30, 2012 will not be displayed on their respective source pages.

You can easily re-create the highlights by opening the book page or article, selecting the text, and clicking “Highlight.”

Citations (0)
Some of your citations are legacy items.

Any citation created before July 30, 2012 will labeled as a “Cited page.” New citations will be saved as cited passages, pages or articles.

We also added the ability to view new citations from your projects or the book or article where you created them.

Notes (0)
Bookmarks (0)

You have no saved items from this book

Project items include:
  • Saved book/article
  • Highlights
  • Quotes/citations
  • Notes
  • Bookmarks
Notes
Cite this page

Cited page

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited page

Bookmark this page
Health and Mortality among Elderly Populations
Table of contents

Table of contents

Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this book

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Full screen
/ 362

matching results for page

Cited passage

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited passage

Thanks for trying Questia!

Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

For full access in an ad-free environment, sign up now for a FREE, 1-day trial.

Already a member? Log in now.