Housing the Poor in the Developing World: Methods of Analysis, Case Studies, and Policy

By A. Graham Tipple; Kenneth G. Willis | Go to book overview

1

Introduction to housing analysis and an overview

Kenneth G. Willis and A. Graham Tipple


HOUSING IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD: AN INTRODUCTION

Housing the poor in the developing world is one of the major challenges facing mankind in the last decade of the twentieth century. The challenge is particularly acute in urban areas where populations are projected to grow from a total of less than 300 million in 1950 to almost two billion by the turn of the century; more than 50 million every year throughout the 1990s, an average growth rate of 3.4 per cent per annum. Within the developing world, the growth in urban population is most acute in the poorest countries. 1

Currently, the major housing problem is the shortage of affordable accommodation for the urban poor; the low-income majority. Over the last three decades, most official housing programmes have failed to reach considerable portions of this group, especially households in the lowest 20 or 40 percentiles of the population. Factors contributing to this failure undoubtedly include the inability of such programmes to provide enough dwellings. As Woodfield (1989) reports, in low-income developing countries during the early 1980s, 61 additional people were born or nine new households were formed for every one new permanent dwelling built. The situation was also serious in middle income countries where population increased at ten times the rate of new permanent dwelling construction. IMF statistics show that governments in developing countries typically spent about 2 per cent of their budgets on housing and community services (Woodfield, 1989:8)

Formal housing is both scarce and expensive relative to wage levels. Thus, low income households have found niches for themselves in cheaper alternatives often in single rooms in central city rented housing. Rooms in city centre ‘vecindades’ are the norm for Latin American low-income households (Edwards, 1982). It is estimated that 35 per cent

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Housing the Poor in the Developing World: Methods of Analysis, Case Studies, and Policy
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents v
  • Figures vii
  • Tables ix
  • Preface xv
  • 1 - Introduction to Housing Analysis and an Overview 1
  • 2 - Participant Observation 16
  • 3 - Cultural Change Analysis 35
  • 4 - Time Series Analysis 62
  • Notes 80
  • 5 - Comparative Analysis 81
  • 6 - Analysis of Government Mortgage Records 96
  • 7 - Ratio Analysis 113
  • 8 - Discriminant Analysis 126
  • 9 - Regression Analysis 143
  • 10 - Econometric Analysis 169
  • Notes 188
  • 11 - Contingent Valuation 189
  • 12 - Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 208
  • 13 - Cost-Benefit Analysis 234
  • 14 - Methods of Analysis and Policy 258
  • Bibliography 262
  • Index 279
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