FEASIBILITY OF SUPPLY
The authors used multiobjective decision analysis to determine which alternative best satisfied the set of prioritized objectives for each of the aspects listed under the four career management functions. Each element of a future career management system was selected because it best satisfied the objectives as they were prioritized by the policymakers. However, the future career management system is a system in which the alternatives will interact with one another, rather than just a set of distinct parts. In other words, the ways in which officers enter, move through, and exit the system need to be internally consistent to be able to support the military manpower requirements for officers; if too many (or too few) enter or exit the system in the wrong places, the system will not support established requirements. Thus, we conducted some basic system feasibility modeling.
We used a system dynamics approach to simulate the interactions of the career alternatives proposed and to model the flow of officers through the career system. The modeling was based upon several sets of inputs. First, the services provided future requirements for officers by grade. We divided these total requirements into requirements for officers in each of the four skill groups, based upon the current division of skill groups for each grade. That is, if 67 percent of current Army O1s are line officers, then 67 percent of the Army O1s in the future requirements were also assumed to be line officers. The requirements are shown in Table E.1. We did not question whether these were the “right” requirements but simply determined if the career management system could support them.