Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

By Raymond S. Nickerson | Go to book overview

CHAPTER
4

Inverse Probability
and the Reverend
Tnomas Bayes

A form of reasoning that has received a great deal of attention from philosophers, mathematicians, and psychologists is based on theorems proposed by an 18th-century British cleric Thomas Bayes (1763) and the French astronomer and mathematician Pierre Laplace (1774). Today Bayes's name is more strongly associated with this development than is that of Laplace, who is better known for his work on celestial mechanics culminating in a five-volume opus by that title and his treatise on probability theory published in 1812; but Todhunter (1865/2001) credits Laplace with being the first to enunciate distinctly the principle for estimating the probability of causes from the observations of events. Although the popularity of Bayesian statistics waxed and waned—perhaps waned more than waxed—over the years, it has enjoyed something of a revival of interest among researchers during the recent past, as indicated by a near doubling of the annual number of published papers making use of it during the 1990s (Malakoff, 1999).

In classical logic, given the premise “If P, then Q, ” one cannot argue from the observation Q to the conclusion P; such an argument is known as “affirmation of the consequent” and is generally considered fallacious. Nevertheless

-109-

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Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page *
  • Contents vii
  • Preface ix
  • Chapter 1 - Probability and Chance 1
  • Chapter 2 - Randomness 54
  • Chapter 3 - Coincidences 82
  • Chapter 4 - Inverse Probability and the Reverend Tnomas Bayes 109
  • Chapter 5 - Some Instructive Problems 143
  • Chapter 6 - Some Probability Paradoxes Ana Dilemmas 181
  • Chapter 7 - Statistics 232
  • Chapter 8 - Estimation Ana Prediction 283
  • Chapter 9 - Perception of Covariation Ana Contingency 332
  • Chapter 10 - Choice Under Uncertainty 355
  • Chapter 11 - People as Intuitive Probabilists 398
  • Chapter 12 - Concluding Comments 436
  • References 439
  • Author Index 489
  • Subject Index 505
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