Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-First Century

By Stephen J. Cimbala | Go to book overview

NOTES
1.
The U.S. policy debate is in the process of undergoing a tectonic shift on this very issue. According to one authoritative study, “It seems certain that active defenses will play a growing role in U.S. strategy and in the strategy of others in the early decades of the next century.” See Center for Counterproliferation Research, National Defense University, and Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, U.S. Nuclear Policy in the 21st Century: A Fresh Look at National Strategy and Requirements (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1998), 2.43. For counterarguments skeptical of national missile defenses, see John Steinbruner, “National Missile Defense: Collision in Progress, ” Arms Control Today 29, no. 7 (1999): 3-6.
2.
For clarity on this topic, I recommend William E. Odom, The Collapse of the Soviet Military (New Haven.: Yale University Press, 1998), 1-15, and Raymond L. Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1990), 6-28.
3.
For assessments of the nuclear past and its relationship to the nuclear future, see Colin S. Gray, The Second Nuclear Age (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1999); Stephen J. Cimbala, The Past and Future of Nuclear Deterrence (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998); and Keith B. Payne, Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1996).
4.
On the sociopolitical level of military doctrine, see Marshal N.V. Ogarkov, Istoriya uchit bditel' nosti (History Teaches Vigilance) (Moscow: Voennoe Izdatel'stvo, 1985), 75-76. On the military-technical aspects of military doctrine, see pp. 76-77.
5.
Ghulam Dastagir Wardak, comp. and Graham Hall Turbiville, Jr., ed., The Voroshilov Lectures: Materials from the Soviet General Staff Academy, vol. 1 (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press, 1989), 63-78.
6.
Anatoly Klimenko, “The Basis of Russia's Military Doctrine, ” Military Parade, , 30 December 1999.
7.
Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, Executive Summary (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1998).
8.
For contrasting arguments on this point, see Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995), esp. Chapters 1 and 2.
9.
See Jonathan Schell, “The Gift of Time: The Case for Abolishing Nuclear Weapons, ” The Nation, 2-9 February 1998, for interviews with former policy makers, academics, and other nuclear experts favoring broader measures for strutural or operational (vertical or horizontal) nuclear disarmament.
10.
My discussions with Bruce Blair, Keith Payne, and Leon Sloss over many years have contributed to my thoughts in this section. They are not responsible for this list nor for the arguments behind it.

-174-

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