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The Pension Challenge: Risk Transfers and Retirement Income Security

By: Olivia S. Mitchell; Kent Smetters | Book details

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Page ix
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Figures
1-1 Trends in US Private Sector Pension Plans (number of plans by type). 3
2-1 Probability of a shortfall. 22
2-2 Cost of shortfall insurance. 22
2-3 How long will $1 million last? 26
2-4 Rate of return on New York Stock Exchange. 27
2-5 Funds remaining for retiree who started withdrawing in 1973. 27
3-1 Participant knowledge about risk/return of company stock. 52
3-2 Wealth outcomes and company stock. 55
4-1 Portfolio efficient frontier. 75
4-2 Exchange option value (1 year). 85
4-3 Exchange option value (3 year). 85
5-1 Expected annuity income paths. 96
5-2 Expected total income paths with pension guarantee. 96
5-3 Expected total income paths with universal pension. 99
6-1 Investment payoffs over 100 random trials (ordered): (a) 10-year horizon, (b) 30-year horizon. 104
6-2 Investment payoff paths for equities versus treasuries: 30 year horizon. 105
7-1 History of the fiscal investment and loan program. 130
7-2 Portfolio of PWSPC, 1998. 131
7-3 Gross pension fund returns minus T-bill rates, Japan, 1970-97. 131
7-4 Accountability of government and public pension fund returns. 146
8-1 Guarantee payments as a function of the IA Value. 162
8-2 Annual returns for US Stock and Bond Markets, 1942-2000. 165
8-3 The effect of longer time horizons on the Volatility of Stock returns. 166
9-1 Expected compounded return of saving plans in stocks and bonds. 193
9-2 Shortfall probability against a (nominal) zero percent target rate of return in stock and bond saving plans. 193
9-3 Conditional mean expected loss (MEL) against a (nominal) zero percent target rate of return in stock and bond saving plans. 194
9-4 Expected shortfall against a (nominal) zero percent target rate of return in stock and bond saving plans. 195

-ix-

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