Against Prediction: Profiling, Policing, and Punishing in An Actuarial Age

By Bernard E. Harcourt | Go to book overview
Save to active project

CHAPTER THREE
The Proliferation of Actuarial
Methods in Punishing and Policing

The academic status of parole-prediction models changed rapidly in the last decades of the twentieth century: at an increasing rate, more and more states began using risk-assessment instruments to determine whether inmates should be released on parole. The trend is visually dramatic and is well illustrated in figure 1.1.

By 2004, twenty-eight states were using a risk-assessment tool as part of their parole decision-making process. Illinois was the only state to use an actuarial instrument during the 1930s, '40s, and '50s, and Ohio experimented with them in the 1960s, but many other states turned to prediction tools after California and the federal government adopted them in the 1970s. Georgia, Iowa, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, and Florida began using risk-assessment instruments in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and other states—including Connecticut, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas—followed suit. Marylynne Hunt-Dorta's 2004 survey and the time-line shown in figure 1.1—which are corroborated by other surveys conducted in 1939, 1961, and 19941—reflect an exponential increase in the use of actuarial methods at the turn of the twenty-first century.

What is especially remarkable about this exponential trend is that it coincided with the relative demise of parole. The number of states offering parole declined steadily from about 44 in 1979 to about 32 in 2003. Despite this decline, the number of states withparole that used an actuarial method increased from about 1 in 1979 to 23 in 2004.2In other words, of the 28 jurisdictions using prediction instruments in 2004, 5 no longer had parole for new convictions but used an actuarial method to determine

-77-

Notes for this page

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
Loading One moment ...
Project items
Notes
Cite this page

Cited page

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

Cited page

Bookmark this page
Against Prediction: Profiling, Policing, and Punishing in An Actuarial Age
Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger
Search within

Search within this book

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

While we understand printed pages are helpful to our users, this limitation is necessary to help protect our publishers' copyrighted material and prevent its unlawful distribution. We are sorry for any inconvenience.
Full screen
/ 336

matching results for page

Cited passage

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

Cited passage

Welcome to the new Questia Reader

The Questia Reader has been updated to provide you with an even better online reading experience.  It is now 100% Responsive, which means you can read our books and articles on any sized device you wish.  All of your favorite tools like notes, highlights, and citations are still here, but the way you select text has been updated to be easier to use, especially on touchscreen devices.  Here's how:

1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
2. Click or tap the last word you want to select.

OK, got it!

Thanks for trying Questia!

Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

For full access in an ad-free environment, sign up now for a FREE, 1-day trial.

Already a member? Log in now.

Are you sure you want to delete this highlight?