Analytical Models for Decision Making

By Colin Sanderson; Reinhold Gruen | Go to book overview

10
Modelling flows through
systems

Overview

In Chapter 1 you learned to distinguish between models representing effects (or influences), logical stages and flows. You were also introduced to system models, which involve both influences and flows. In this chapter and the next you will learn about a number of approaches to modelling systems. Such models can play useful roles in analysing the possible outcomes of different policy options.

In the first part of this chapter you will learn how flows through systems can be represented using simple 'tree' models. These can be useful for questions about the routes that flows of patients may take as they move through the system, if 'outcomes' can be measured at a fixed time after intervention. But if outcome events are spread out over time and can occur more than once, another approach may be needed. In the second part of this chapter you will learn about Markov models.

Another important issue is whether the situation in some 'downstream' parts of a system affects flow rates 'upstream'. The nature and extent of any such feature of a system, called 'feedback', can determine how the system as a whole behaves, and in the third part of the chapter you will learn more about this. Finally, you will learn about the limitations of modelling flows as flows, rather than the sum of the experiences of individuals. In Chapter 11 you will learn about modelling the experiences of individuals, known as microsimulation.


Learning objectives
By the end of this chapter, you will be better able to:
use representations of flows, states, events and influences to describe the
performance of systems
use tree structures to model flows through a system
explain the Markov property and Markov chains
explain the role of system dynamics and feedback in complex system
behaviour

Key terms

Feedback loop The causal loop formed when flow rates out of a process or state influence the
flow rates into it.

-181-

Notes for this page

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items

Items saved from this book

This book has been saved
Highlights (0)
Some of your highlights are legacy items.

Highlights saved before July 30, 2012 will not be displayed on their respective source pages.

You can easily re-create the highlights by opening the book page or article, selecting the text, and clicking “Highlight.”

Citations (0)
Some of your citations are legacy items.

Any citation created before July 30, 2012 will labeled as a “Cited page.” New citations will be saved as cited passages, pages or articles.

We also added the ability to view new citations from your projects or the book or article where you created them.

Notes (0)
Bookmarks (0)

You have no saved items from this book

Project items include:
  • Saved book/article
  • Highlights
  • Quotes/citations
  • Notes
  • Bookmarks
Notes
Cite this page

Cited page

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited page

Bookmark this page
Analytical Models for Decision Making
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Understanding Public Health ii
  • Title Page iii
  • Contents v
  • Acknowledgements vii
  • Overview 1
  • Section 1 - Models and Decision Making in Health Care 5
  • 1: The Role of Models 7
  • 2: Building a Decision Support Model 28
  • 3: Strategic Options Development and Analysis 43
  • Section 2 - Methods for Clarifying Complex Decisions 63
  • 4: Many Criteria 65
  • 5: Uncertainty 84
  • 6: Risk 103
  • Section 3 - Models for Service Planning and Resource Allocation 119
  • 7: Population Need for a Specific Service 121
  • 8: Balanced Service Provision 142
  • 9: Hospital Models 164
  • Section 4 - Modelling for Evaluating Changes in Systems 179
  • 10: Modelling Flows Through Systems 181
  • 11: Irregular Flows Systems with Queues 202
  • 12: Outline Review 223
  • Glossary 227
  • Index 231
Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this book

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Full screen
/ 240

matching results for page

Cited passage

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited passage

Welcome to the new Questia Reader

The Questia Reader has been updated to provide you with an even better online reading experience.  It is now 100% Responsive, which means you can read our books and articles on any sized device you wish.  All of your favorite tools like notes, highlights, and citations are still here, but the way you select text has been updated to be easier to use, especially on touchscreen devices.  Here's how:

1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
2. Click or tap the last word you want to select.

OK, got it!

Thanks for trying Questia!

Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

For full access in an ad-free environment, sign up now for a FREE, 1-day trial.

Already a member? Log in now.