How Domestic Trends in the U.S., China, and Iran Could Influence U.S. Navy Strategic Planning

By John Gordon IV; Robert W. Button et al. | Go to book overview

APPENDIX B
China’s Coal Future

As observed in the main body of this monograph, China depends on coal for about 70 percent of its energy and has the world’s thirdlargest coal reserve (behind the United States and Russia). China is the world’s largest producer of coal, and until recently was a net exporter of coal. Demand for coal in China has increased with China’s economic growth and has outstripped supply. For example, Shanxi province, which produces a quarter of China’s coal, recently experienced a 15-percent coal shortage for electrical-power generation. Although coal companies in Shanxi have increased coal production by 9 percent, supply has not met demand.1 Nationwide, China’s coal reserves are shrinking, and rising coal prices are fueling inflation and cutting profits.2 Recent independent analyses suggest that if China’s economy continues to grow, China’s coal production will peak between 2015 and 2025 and that production will significantly decline (to below current levels) by 2030-2040.


China’s Coal Industry

Because China has always been largely self-sufficient in coal, major forces for supply and demand have been internal. The history of China’s coal industry begins with organized production in 475 BC. China’s

1 “Supply Crunch Hits Coal Cradle,” China Daily, July 9, 2008.

2 “Power Coal Reserve Falls to 12 Days Amid Rising Prices,” China Daily, April 23, 2008.

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How Domestic Trends in the U.S., China, and Iran Could Influence U.S. Navy Strategic Planning
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page i
  • Preface iii
  • Contents v
  • Figures ix
  • Tables xi
  • Summary xiii
  • Abbreviations xxvii
  • Chapter One - Introduction and Objectives 1
  • Chapter Two - Strategic Trends in the United States 5
  • Chapter Three - The United States’ near Abroad 29
  • Chapter Four - Strategic Trends in the People’s Republic of China 37
  • Chapter Five - China’s near Abroad 87
  • Chapter Six - Strategic Trends in Iran 97
  • Chapter Seven - Iran’s near Abroad 125
  • Chapter Eight - Japan’s near Abroad 133
  • Chapter Nine - Russia’s near Abroad 143
  • Chapter Ten - Conclusions 159
  • Appendix A - Comparisons 171
  • Appendix B - China’s Coal Future 177
  • Bibliography 191
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