I have already indicated that the first of the arms policy problems to be considered is that of deterrence, and it might be useful to introduce the subject with a brief discussion of inter-personal and inter-group influence, of which deterrence is but a particular form. In any competitive situation involving two or more players, each player will attempt to influence the behavior of the other(s) in one or both of two possible directions. He will attempt to encourage certain forms of behavior and discourage others. Unfortunately for men and nations, diplomacy has tended to focus primarily upon the dis couragement dimension of influence almost to the exclusion of en couragement.
It should be immediately evident that a strategy of deterrence is but a particular form of influencing by discouragement; more specifically, it is a strategy of threatened punishment or threatened denial, and proceeds from the premise that the anticipated