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Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Application of a Process Model

By: Oliver, George F. | Parameters, Spring 2002 | Article details

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Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Application of a Process Model


Oliver, George F., Parameters


Edited b Thomas S. Szayna. Arlington, Va.: RAND Arroyo Center, 2000. 328 pages. $25.00.

This is a difficult book to read and comprehend, but the model presented has merit. The best part of this book is its in-depth analysis of four case studies: Yugoslavia, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Saudi Arabia. As the acknowledgements state, the book was commissioned by the US Army's Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence and is intended for use by members of the intelligence community to predict the outcome of ethnic conflicts.

In the new world order of the 21st century, internal ethnic conflicts dominate crises around the globe. The authors state that between 1988 and …

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