Several Polls Show Center-Left Candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador with Lead over Two Closest Rivals

Public-opinion polls have become the centerpiece of Mexico's presidential campaign, with polling companies differing on the margin by which former Mexico City mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is leading his two closest rivals. Lopez Obrador will represent the center-left Partido de la Revolucion Democratica (PRD) in the July 2, 2006, election, facing Felipe Calderon Hinojosa of the conservative Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) and Roberto Madrazo Pintado of the former governing Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI).

Six of seven polls published during November show support for Lopez Obrador in a range between 29% and 35%, with a seventh poll showing the former Mexico City mayor with as much as 37% of voter preferences. Three of the polls were conducted or commissioned by Mexico City-based daily newspapers, including La Crisis, Reforma, and El Universal.

In contrast, support for Calderon and Madrazo varies widely, with the two candidates vying for second place in voter preferences. Madrazo was second in voter preferences in five of the seven polls, although the lead was only by a few percentage points, creating a statistical dead heat.

In some polls, such as those conducted by Consulta Mitofsky and Reforma, Madrazo and Calderon were within a few points of Lopez Obrador, also creating a statistical dead heat.

In some polls, the candidate of the Partido Verde Ecologista Mexicano (PVEM), Bernardo de la Garza Herrera, obtained 6% to 8% of voter preferences, taking support away primarily from the PRI and PAN candidates. De la Garza has gained strong name recognition because his party has spent large sums on radio and television spots.

Following are the poll results released during November, listed in alphabetical order of polling company or entity:

Beltran y Asociados (BGC): Lopez Obrador, 33%; Madrazo, 30%, Calderon, 28%; De la Garza, 8%

Consulta Mitofsky: Lopez Obrador, 34.8%; Madrazo, 30.4%, Calderon, 28.8%; De la Garza, 6%

Grupo Bimsa: Lopez Obrador, 35%; Madrazo, 30%, Calderon, 27%; De la Garza, 6%

Instituto de Mercadotecnia y Opinion (IMO): Lopez Obrador, 37.2%; Calderon, 18.8%; Madrazo, 18%.

El Universal: Lopez Obrador, 34%; Calderon, 22%, Madrazo, 18%

La Crisis: Lopez Obrador, 33.7%; Madrazo, 28.5%, Calderon, 23.9%

Reforma: Lopez Obrador, 29%; Calderon, 28%; Madrazo, 21%

Analysts …

Questia, a part of Gale, Cengage Learning. www.questia.com
Publication information: Article title: Several Polls Show Center-Left Candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador with Lead over Two Closest Rivals. Contributors: Not available. Magazine title: SourceMex Economic News & Analysis on Mexico. Publication date: November 30, 2005. Page number: Not available. © 2009 Latin American Data Base/Latin American Institute. COPYRIGHT 2005 Gale Group.

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