There Are Methods to Their Madness; Duo Develops Software to Predict Credit Risks or Basketball Pairings

By Trinidad, Alison | The Florida Times Union, March 11, 2007 | Go to article overview

There Are Methods to Their Madness; Duo Develops Software to Predict Credit Risks or Basketball Pairings


Trinidad, Alison, The Florida Times Union


Byline: ALISON TRINIDAD

Betting which men's college basketball teams will receive at-large invites to the NCAA tournament, aka March Madness, tonight?

Data from two business professors could help.

Jay Coleman, associate dean of the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida, and Allen Lynch, associate professor of economics and quantitative methods at Mercer University in Macon, Ga., have devised statistical models that predict which teams will be invited to play the month-long tourney and which teams would win each match.

In the last 13 years, Coleman says, the first model - called the Dance Card - has proven to be accurate about 94 percent of the time; the second - called the Score Card - has been correct about 73 percent of the time.

The professors apply to sports math formulas that also are increasingly used by business forecasters, including managers, investment bankers and actuaries, to improve their bottom lines. Whereas corporate America might use the formulas to determine credit risk for loan applicants or which advertisements are more effective, the Dance Card predicts what the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will do.

To be sure, Coleman insists that forecasts of any sort are never perfect.

"The forecast is always going to be wrong," he said. "The idea is to be simply better than the other guy, or at least be better than we have been."

Nonetheless, the business of forecasting is getting bigger, if not better.

Morgan Stanley, a large U.S. investment bank, says technology used to analyze and predict business performance is growing about 14 percent a year. Compare that to the general software market, which is growing at a 6 percent tick annually, according to IDC, a leading information technology analyst firm.

That said, it also seems strategies that pad corporate pockets are making their way into the mainstream. For one, there's Numb3rs, a television show on CBS that features a mathematician who uses statistical analysis to help solve crimes. Then there was Moneyball, the 2003 book by Michael Lewis that analyzed how the Oakland Athletics managed a winning record despite having the smallest player payroll among major league baseball teams.

Sports prediction models like Coleman and Lynch's Dance Card and Score Card are the latest pop-culture manifestation of what math and information technology are capable of accomplishing, says Rebecca Wettemann, vice president of Nucleus Research, an independent IT consulting firm based in Massachusetts.

The rest of this article is only available to active members of Questia

Sign up now for a free, 1-day trial and receive full access to:

  • Questia's entire collection
  • Automatic bibliography creation
  • More helpful research tools like notes, citations, and highlights
  • Ad-free environment

Already a member? Log in now.

Notes for this article

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Project items

Items saved from this article

This article has been saved
Highlights (0)
Some of your highlights are legacy items.

Highlights saved before July 30, 2012 will not be displayed on their respective source pages.

You can easily re-create the highlights by opening the book page or article, selecting the text, and clicking “Highlight.”

Citations (0)
Some of your citations are legacy items.

Any citation created before July 30, 2012 will labeled as a “Cited page.” New citations will be saved as cited passages, pages or articles.

We also added the ability to view new citations from your projects or the book or article where you created them.

Notes (0)
Bookmarks (0)

You have no saved items from this article

Project items include:
  • Saved book/article
  • Highlights
  • Quotes/citations
  • Notes
  • Bookmarks
Notes
Cite this article

Cited article

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited article

There Are Methods to Their Madness; Duo Develops Software to Predict Credit Risks or Basketball Pairings
Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger
Search within

Search within this article

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Full screen

matching results for page

Cited passage

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited passage

Welcome to the new Questia Reader

The Questia Reader has been updated to provide you with an even better online reading experience.  It is now 100% Responsive, which means you can read our books and articles on any sized device you wish.  All of your favorite tools like notes, highlights, and citations are still here, but the way you select text has been updated to be easier to use, especially on touchscreen devices.  Here's how:

1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
2. Click or tap the last word you want to select.

OK, got it!

Thanks for trying Questia!

Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

For full access in an ad-free environment, sign up now for a FREE, 1-day trial.

Already a member? Log in now.