Organisational Management and Information Systems: Managing Human Resources Is Especially Hard during a Time of Economic Uncertainty, Writes Alan Marsden, Who Offers His Guide to HR Planning

Marsden, Alan, Financial Management (UK)

There has probably never been an era in living memory when the long-term future of the economy has been so hard to predict. A BBC survey of leading economists in April found a wide divergence of opinion, with forecasts ranging from an upturn in 2010 through to a depression lasting a decade or more. On the other hand, there is a broad consensus on two things: that the recession's effects will be with us for some time, entailing yet more bankruptcies and job losses; and that the upturn will come--at some point.

In such uncertain conditions both business planning and HR planning are especially difficult. This becomes clear when you consider the nature of the latter process. In essence, this involves comparing an organisation's existing human resources with its forecast need for labour in the light of its corporate objectives and then specifying the measures necessary for the acquisition, training and redeployment or divestment of staff. It also involves the estimation of labour turnover, an analysis of the consequences of changes in working practices and the preparation of skills inventories among the organisation's more important processes.

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It's important to note that the HR plan depends on the business plan, because the need for labour is a derived demand. The diagram opposite shows a generally accepted framework--proposed by Laurie Mullins in Management and Organisational Behaviour (FT/Prentice Hall, 2007)--outlining the four main stages of HR planning:

* An analysis of existing staffing resources.

* An estimation of changes in resources by the target date, considering factors such as staff turnover, improvements in employees' performance and external factors such as the availability of labour. This determines the supply forecast.

* A forecast of staffing …

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Publication information: Article title: Organisational Management and Information Systems: Managing Human Resources Is Especially Hard during a Time of Economic Uncertainty, Writes Alan Marsden, Who Offers His Guide to HR Planning. Contributors: Marsden, Alan - Author. Magazine title: Financial Management (UK). Publication date: July-August 2009. Page number: 40+. © 2009 Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA). COPYRIGHT 2009 Gale Group.

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