Welfare Costs of Border Delays: Numerical Calculations from a Canadian Regional Trade model/Les Couts En Bien-Etre Des Retards a la Frontiere: Analyse Numerique a L'aide D'un Modele Canadien De Commerce Regional

By Nguyen, Trien T.; Wigle, Randall M. | Canadian Journal of Regional Science, Summer 2009 | Go to article overview

Welfare Costs of Border Delays: Numerical Calculations from a Canadian Regional Trade model/Les Couts En Bien-Etre Des Retards a la Frontiere: Analyse Numerique a L'aide D'un Modele Canadien De Commerce Regional


Nguyen, Trien T., Wigle, Randall M., Canadian Journal of Regional Science


Abstract

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the welfare costs to Canada's provinces from border delays such as those that might occur as a result of post 9/11 security measures. The focus of the paper is on the provincial and sectoral allocation of the burden of border delays using a static regional computable general equilibrium model of Canada. Simulation results indicate that all regions in Canada could incur significant welfare losses ranging from $5.5 to $13 billion from increases in the transactions cost associated with both merchandise and service trade. In particular, Ontario stands out with the heaviest burden in the country. Our analysis suggests both that border delays may be even more important to Canada than previously thought and that the variation in their regional impact is considerable.

Resume

[Welfare Costs of Border Delays: Numerical Calculations From a Canadian Regional Trade Model.] Le plus grand partenaire commercial du Canada demeure son voisin les Etats-Unis, comptant normalement les trois quart des exportations et la moitie des importations. Avec un tel ordre d'importance, le commerce bilateral Canada-Etats-Unis demeure le plus important en terme de volume (environ un milliard de $ par minute) et le contexte politique, malgre la presence de desaccords commerciaux et de frictions sur la question du bois d'oeuvre et des produits agricoles. Les enjeux touchant le commerce et la securite dominent l'ordre du jour des negociations entre les deux pays. Cet article utilise un modele regional calculable d'equilibre general et presente une analyse quantitative des couts economiques des delais a la frontiere, comine ceux qui ont suivi la periode post-septembre 2001. Bien qu'un certain nombre de mesures aient ete adoptees depuis 2001 pour reduire les retards a la frontiere, tout indique que la situation qui touche en particulier le commerce transfrontalier demeure touj ours precaire.

Nous examinons les consequences regionales et sectorielles des retards a la frontiere provenant du resserrement de la securite ainsi que de la congestion a certains postes frontiere (comme par exemple le pont et tunnel entre Windsor et Detroit). Nous examinons egalement a titre illustratif quelques simulations liees a l'effet des mesures de securite a la frontiere sur le commerce des services, comme le tourisme et les voyages. Le tourisme est tout recemment devenu un enjeu important avec l'exigence recente, approuvee par le Congres americain, des passeports pour les voyages aux Etats-Unis.

L'emphase de l'etude porte sur la distribution provinciale et sectorielle des couts sur le bien-etre provenant des retards a la ffontiere. Le modele utilise est une variante de MBCI (Modele de base du commerce interregional)--un modele d'equilibre general calculable (MEGC) statique du commerce interregional au Canada--et la banque de donnees du PAERC (Projet d'analyse economique regionale canadien) qui l'accompagne. La documentation complete du modele et de la base de donnees sont disponibles sur le site web du PAERC http://creap. wlu.ca. La modelisation des retards comprend les couts sur l'utilisation des ressources qui sont impliquees dans les retards. Par exemple, on prend en compte les voitures et leurs conducteurs qui ne sont pas disponibles pour la duree du retard.

Nos resultats bien que preliminaires indiquent que l'enjeu du probleme des retards a la frontiere est tres important au Canada et merite plus d'analyses. L'approche adoptee dans cet article propose une methode pour quantifier les couts de bien-etre economique des retards a la frontiere dans un contexte regional. Bien que MBCI soit essentiellement un modele canadien concu pour etudier les questions d'interet canadiennes, nous croyons que notre travail peut aider a servir de point de depart pour plus de recherches sur des questions similaires de couts en bien-etre du cote americain de la ffontiere.

Les resultats de simulation presentes ici devraient etre pris a titre illustratif. …

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Welfare Costs of Border Delays: Numerical Calculations from a Canadian Regional Trade model/Les Couts En Bien-Etre Des Retards a la Frontiere: Analyse Numerique a L'aide D'un Modele Canadien De Commerce Regional
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