New Model for AIDS in Third World

By Weiss, Rick | Science News, March 19, 1988 | Go to article overview

New Model for AIDS in Third World


Weiss, Rick, Science News


New model for AIDS in Third World

African countries, with some of the highest birth rates in the world, may find their populations actually shrinking in coming decades, according to a new, computerized model of population dynamics. But scientists warn that the news is not good, as the decline will be due not to well-thought-out policies but to the AIDS epidemic, which is expected to overburden many of these countries' resources in the coming years.

While most experts agree that the AIDS-related social and economic toll in Africa will be great, not all agree that the new model is accurate. Critics say that despite higher death rates in developing countries, population growth will not be so severely affected. The debate highlights difficulties in desiging mathematical models to predict the course of the AIDS epidemic, and comes at a time when developing nations need accurate guidance as they consider different strategies for stemming the spread of the fatal disease.

The new model attempts to balance many factors affecting AIDS in developing countries, some of which have a much higher prevalence of the disease than does the United States. Designed by epidemiologists at London (England) University and Princeton (N.J.) University and described in the March 17 NATIRE, the model makes the alarming prediction that "AIDS is capable of changing population growth rates from positive to negative values over time scales of a few decades."

On a more positive note, it predicts little change in developing countries' "dependency ratios," defined as the proportion of a population aged less than 15 and more than 65 years old. The ratio measures the segment of society that depends upon others for support, and can serve as a predictor of socioeconomic stress on a society. Other researchers have stated that the dependency ratio might rise with the spread of AIDS. …

The rest of this article is only available to active members of Questia

Sign up now for a free, 1-day trial and receive full access to:

  • Questia's entire collection
  • Automatic bibliography creation
  • More helpful research tools like notes, citations, and highlights
  • Ad-free environment

Already a member? Log in now.

Notes for this article

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items

Items saved from this article

This article has been saved
Highlights (0)
Some of your highlights are legacy items.

Highlights saved before July 30, 2012 will not be displayed on their respective source pages.

You can easily re-create the highlights by opening the book page or article, selecting the text, and clicking “Highlight.”

Citations (0)
Some of your citations are legacy items.

Any citation created before July 30, 2012 will labeled as a “Cited page.” New citations will be saved as cited passages, pages or articles.

We also added the ability to view new citations from your projects or the book or article where you created them.

Notes (0)
Bookmarks (0)

You have no saved items from this article

Project items include:
  • Saved book/article
  • Highlights
  • Quotes/citations
  • Notes
  • Bookmarks
Notes
Cite this article

Cited article

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited article

New Model for AIDS in Third World
Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this article

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Full screen

matching results for page

Cited passage

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited passage

Thanks for trying Questia!

Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

For full access in an ad-free environment, sign up now for a FREE, 1-day trial.

Already a member? Log in now.