Population Forecasting with Nonstationary Multiregional Growth Matrices

By Sweeney, Stuart H.; Konty, Kevin J. | Geographical Analysis, October 2002 | Go to article overview

Population Forecasting with Nonstationary Multiregional Growth Matrices


Sweeney, Stuart H., Konty, Kevin J., Geographical Analysis


Though the mathematics of multiregional population projections were defined over twenty years ago, and the methodology has seen some adoption internationally, most practitioners in the United States still use rudimentary cohort component projections techniques. Both the stationarity assumption and the implicit five-year retrospective time scale imposed by the census migration data have probably contributed to the limited use of multiregional projections methods. This paper reviews previous attempts to overcome the stationarity assumption and proposes a decompositional approach using log linear models estimated via the ECM algorithm. The paper discusses the advantages of the decompositional approach and implements the model for intrastate migration in California.

**********

Population forecasts are one of the primary inputs to a wide range of important planning functions carried out by states and localities in the United States. As has been argued eloquently by Isserman (1984) accurate population forecasts are fundamental to good planning. In long-range planning, large forecast errors translate into costs related to over- or underprovision of physical infrastructure. In rapidly growing states, such as California, there is added urgency for reliable short-term forecasts. Transportation, human resources, and environmental planning all rely on near-term forecasts of changes in the spatial population distribution.

In practice, the methods used to construct both long- and short-range population projections have remained rudimentary. Though multiregional population projection methodology was developed by Rogers in the 1960s, simple cohort-component methods are still the most widely taught and applied methodology in practice. This is true despite attempts to write gentle introductions to the methodology for a practitioner audience (Rogers 1985, Isserman 1984) and despite clear demonstrations of the bias introduced through the use of net migration in the cohort-component projection model (Rogers 1990).

Why is it that multiregional projection methods have not found wider use to date? There are several reasons. Like the large-scale models in Lee's requiem (1973), multiregional models are data hungry. Whereas simple cohort-component models can use either residually measured net migration or ignore migration altogether, multiregional models require a matrix of origin-destination flows. Demographically disaggregate flow data have been only available once per decade and the computational burden needed to access the data containing county-to-county flows, and to a lesser extent state-to-state flows, has been prohibitive for some.

The data landscape is becoming increasingly complex, presenting new challenges and new opportunities. In the United States, the decennial census long form, sampling approximately one-sixth of the population, has long been the primary source of internal migration data capable of supporting detailed socioeconomic and spatial disaggregation. (1) Given mounting political pressure related to privacy concerns and the high cost of the long form, the U.S. Census Bureau has proposed to supercede the long form with the American Community Survey (ACS) by the 2010 Census. (2) The ACS would have a monthly sample of 250,000 compared to approximately 17 million sampled by the 2000 Census long form. Though the monthly ACS will include a 1-year retrospective migration question, providing more timely data, the smaller sample size necessarily means some degradation of the socioeconomic and spatial detail traditionally available in the long form. The ACS/long form trade-offs reflect a general shift in the social science data col lection and dissemination.

Though there is an apparent loss in resolution and statistical power if the long form is indeed eclipsed by the ACS, it is likely that social science data resolution will advance on all fronts: spatial scales, temporal scales, and demographic characteristics. …

The rest of this article is only available to active members of Questia

Sign up now for a free, 1-day trial and receive full access to:

  • Questia's entire collection
  • Automatic bibliography creation
  • More helpful research tools like notes, citations, and highlights
  • Ad-free environment

Already a member? Log in now.

Notes for this article

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items

Items saved from this article

This article has been saved
Highlights (0)
Some of your highlights are legacy items.

Highlights saved before July 30, 2012 will not be displayed on their respective source pages.

You can easily re-create the highlights by opening the book page or article, selecting the text, and clicking “Highlight.”

Citations (0)
Some of your citations are legacy items.

Any citation created before July 30, 2012 will labeled as a “Cited page.” New citations will be saved as cited passages, pages or articles.

We also added the ability to view new citations from your projects or the book or article where you created them.

Notes (0)
Bookmarks (0)

You have no saved items from this article

Project items include:
  • Saved book/article
  • Highlights
  • Quotes/citations
  • Notes
  • Bookmarks
Notes
Cite this article

Cited article

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited article

Population Forecasting with Nonstationary Multiregional Growth Matrices
Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this article

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Full screen

matching results for page

Cited passage

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited passage

Welcome to the new Questia Reader

The Questia Reader has been updated to provide you with an even better online reading experience.  It is now 100% Responsive, which means you can read our books and articles on any sized device you wish.  All of your favorite tools like notes, highlights, and citations are still here, but the way you select text has been updated to be easier to use, especially on touchscreen devices.  Here's how:

1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
2. Click or tap the last word you want to select.

OK, got it!

Thanks for trying Questia!

Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

For full access in an ad-free environment, sign up now for a FREE, 1-day trial.

Already a member? Log in now.