Global Economy Faces Slack Period Ahead Indicators Show US, Canada on Upswing, Japan and Germany Moving Down, Other Industrial Nations Registering Little Change

By David R. Francis, writer of The Christian Science Monitor | The Christian Science Monitor, March 18, 1992 | Go to article overview

Global Economy Faces Slack Period Ahead Indicators Show US, Canada on Upswing, Japan and Germany Moving Down, Other Industrial Nations Registering Little Change


David R. Francis, writer of The Christian Science Monitor, The Christian Science Monitor


THE world economy is behaving like a seesaw. Two countries on one end, the United States and Canada, are headed up; two heavyweights on the other end, Japan and Germany, are going down. On balance, the world economy has slowed from last year and no rapid pickup is anticipated.

"There is enough growth abroad to give a little support to the US recovery," says Geoffrey Moore, director of the Center for International Business Cycle Research at Columbia University.

His center's analysis shows that statistical leading indicators for five nations - the US, Canada, Australia, Taiwan, and New Zealand - are positive, indicating more rapid growth in the months ahead. The leading indicators for Japan and Germany are negative. And the indicators for France, Britain, Italy, and South Korea signal not much change in economic activity.

This mixed picture, notes Dr. Moore, is better than a "unified recession." Far more countries experienced hard times together in the slumps of 1973-74 and 1981-82.

Rudi Dornbusch, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, sees "a real chance" that 1992, rather than bringing recovery, will bring a slide toward world recession. "The ingredients are quite clear: a loss in confidence, financial fragility, and too little monetary easing, or too late," he told a seminar organized by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's new World Economy Laboratory on March 13.

But most economists are more cheerful. A survey earlier this month, by the newsletter Globescope, of forecasts by 44 financial or business institutions in several countries showed, on average, real growth in output this year in all the nations examined. The numbers: US, 1.7 percent; Canada, 2.4; Japan, 2.7; Germany, 1.8; France, 2.0; Italy, 1.9; Britain, 1.5; Spain, 2.8; Australia, 2.3; Mexico, 4.3, and Brazil, 1.5.

With such a modest growth pattern, inflation is declining in most industrial countries, except perhaps Germany. "Core inflation is down," says Professor Dornbusch. Inflation in these rich nations, on average, will run 3.4 percent this year, economists predict.

A thumbnail sketch of the economic scene in several countries follows:

* United States: Recent statistics have been encouraging. Sales of North-American-made vehicles rose 14 percent in early March. Retail sales increased 1.3 percent in February and a revised 2.1 percent in January, possibly indicating consumers are leaving their blues behind.

"The economy is on the threshold of its best gains since 1988," say economists at the Prudential Insurance Company of America. They have just raised their forecast for US output to a 4.5 percent annual rate in the second half, a prediction well above the average. …

The rest of this article is only available to active members of Questia

Sign up now for a free, 1-day trial and receive full access to:

  • Questia's entire collection
  • Automatic bibliography creation
  • More helpful research tools like notes, citations, and highlights
  • Ad-free environment

Already a member? Log in now.

Notes for this article

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items

Items saved from this article

This article has been saved
Highlights (0)
Some of your highlights are legacy items.

Highlights saved before July 30, 2012 will not be displayed on their respective source pages.

You can easily re-create the highlights by opening the book page or article, selecting the text, and clicking “Highlight.”

Citations (0)
Some of your citations are legacy items.

Any citation created before July 30, 2012 will labeled as a “Cited page.” New citations will be saved as cited passages, pages or articles.

We also added the ability to view new citations from your projects or the book or article where you created them.

Notes (0)
Bookmarks (0)

You have no saved items from this article

Project items include:
  • Saved book/article
  • Highlights
  • Quotes/citations
  • Notes
  • Bookmarks
Notes
Cite this article

Cited article

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited article

Global Economy Faces Slack Period Ahead Indicators Show US, Canada on Upswing, Japan and Germany Moving Down, Other Industrial Nations Registering Little Change
Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this article

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Full screen

matching results for page

Cited passage

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited passage

Welcome to the new Questia Reader

The Questia Reader has been updated to provide you with an even better online reading experience.  It is now 100% Responsive, which means you can read our books and articles on any sized device you wish.  All of your favorite tools like notes, highlights, and citations are still here, but the way you select text has been updated to be easier to use, especially on touchscreen devices.  Here's how:

1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
2. Click or tap the last word you want to select.

OK, got it!

Thanks for trying Questia!

Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

For full access in an ad-free environment, sign up now for a FREE, 1-day trial.

Already a member? Log in now.