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Historical Trends Point Way to Higher Returns

By: Schwartz, David | The Independent (London, England), January 2, 1994 | Article details

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Historical Trends Point Way to Higher Returns


Schwartz, David, The Independent (London, England)


MANY of last year's "surprise" price shifts were no surprise at all to stock market historians.

Studying historical price trends can be a profitable undertaking. A 1993 investment would have grown 17.6 per cent by year-end on a broad index such as the FT-SE 500. The same investment, if moved out of the market during historically poor months, would have grown by 19.1 per cent.

Historical analysis provides investors with probabilities of success or failure but no guarantees. Take January, traditionally one of the most profitable months, with the odds of making a profit even higher if prices rise in the run-up to January.

Despite the favourable odds, January …

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