Learning to Live with Recessions We May, Here in the UK, Manage Our Way through the Early 2000s Rather Better Than Most
McRae, Hamish, The Independent (London, England)
THIS WEEK is just the moment for a book called Major Recessions* to be published, for of course it is also the moment at which we all fear we might be heading into the next one.
It is not just whether the early 2000s downswing is going to be like the 1930s, or the early 1980s or early 1990s - or maybe like the more benign slowdowns of the 1950s. There are also the fascinating "why?" questions. What causes recessions? Are they inevitable? Can we predict their timing?
The book is by Christopher Dow, an economist who, amongst other posts, has been an executive director of the Bank of England, assistant secretary- general of the OECD, and deputy director of the National Institute - and who sadly died last week. Because it tackles one of the most important issues facing policy-makers, the book will reach a wider audience than that received by the usual economic tome. It deserves to. The three main conclusions can be put very simply. One: major recessions happen when there is a sharp fall-off of demand for goods and services - the problem is lack of demand, not a fall in supply. Two: these declines are the result of demand shocks which can be identified, amplified by swings in consumer and business confidence. And three: (sorry about this one) major recessions are not predictable. Remember we are talking about major recessions, not regular swings in the business cycle. The cycle was evident during the 1950s and 1960s but there have only been four major recessions since 1920: the British element of the world-wide 1930s depression, the post-oil- shock recessions of the middle 1970s and the early 1980s, and one we all remember best, the early 1990s recession. There is a vast amount of economic literature about economic cycles, both here and elsewhere; the interesting thing about the Dow book is that it deals with the crucial issue of whether the downward swing of the cycle develops into a serious recession. This is surely the most important thing for policy-makers in Britain now. What happens in the world economy is beyond our national control. What we can hope to do is to mitigate the impact of something going wrong in, currently, East Asia, in the way in which Britain managed to mitigate the impact of the US-led depression in the 1930s - and failed to do very well in the last three recessions of the 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s. Professor Dow's view, put broadly, is that there are things governments can do to ride with the punches, so to speak. For example, they can manage expansions so that they are neither too slow nor too fast. By doing so, they reduce the likelihood of a sudden collapse of business and consumer confidence. Shocks will happen: the trick is to respond deftly to them. Professor Dow notes that UK economy policy was clumsy in the 1989- 93 period - a point on which most economists would agree, though to what extent sterling's membership of the ERM (and the earlier shadowing of the mark) made such clumsiness inevitable is open to debate. Can one say anything sensible about the way we might manage the UK economy through the world downswing now? Professor Dow was writing a book about past experience, and the shortcomings of policy then, rather than setting out a blueprint for action now, but a couple of thoughts come to mind. One is that we may, here in the UK, manage our way thought the early 2000s rather better than most developed countries. …