Empirical Knowledge on World Politics: A Summary of Quantitative Research, 1970-1991

By Brian H. Gibbs; J. David Singer | Go to book overview

Variables:
Outcomes: (1) number of serious international disputes initiated, (2) number
of times a target of a serious international dispute, (3) number of
disputes joined.
Predictors: (1) power rank of a state, (2) inversion of power rank, (3)
distance between ranks.

Data Sources: capability data, the Correlates of War Project ( University of Michigan, Ann Arbor); Cross-Polity Time Series ( Banks, 1971), World Handbook of Social and Political Indicators ( Taylor, 1980).

Data Operations: Six indicators of "power" used to create an index of power rank: (1) total population, (2) urban population, (3) energy consumption, (4) steel production, (5) military personnel, (6) defense expenditures. Each state's percentage share of the system total on each dimension calculated. Its average percentage share in a 5-year period used to establish its power rank. "Serious international disputes" are disputes in which at least one of the participants threatens another with the use of armed force. Criteria for identifying if a state is an "initiator" or a "target" of a dispute not specified in paper. Rank order correlations calculated for nations for the following dimensions: (1) its power rank, (2) the number of disputes it initiated, (3) the number of times it was the target of a dispute and (4) the number of times it joined in a serious international dispute. All data measured in intervals of 5 years and for the overall time period, 1900-1976.

Data Analysis: rank order correlations, regression analysis.

Findings: At the state-level, the median correlation between the power rank of a state and the number of serious international disputes it initiated was -.33; for power rank and the number of disputes it joined -.30; for power rank and the number of times it was a target of dispute -. 10. The median nation-level correlations for the inversion of power rank and the three outcome variables are +.33, + .17 and + .45 [Table III].


No. 61
"Major World Conflicts and Interventions, 1945-1975", William Eckhardt and Edward Azar, International Interactions, 5(1), 1978, 75-110.

Ouery: Has the frequency of global "conflict" and "intervention" changed between 1945 and 1975? Are certain regions of the world more "conflict" and "intervention" prone than other regions? Which states have been the most frequent

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