The Economic Basis of Peace: Linkages between Economic Growth and International Conflict

By William H. Mott IV | Go to book overview

5
A Quandary and a Conjecture

Crude analysis of the empirical record confirms the existence and power of the conjunct growth-conflict relationship, and indicates some significant regularities about its nature along several dimensions. The disjoined relationships show significantly finer resolution and more details, especially along the "effects" dimension. In disclosing a large portion of the political-economic theory of the dynamics between economic growth and international conflict, which is the object of this study, disjunction, however, creates its own dilemma of determining which growth-conflict relationship is relevant, why it is active, and what to do about it.

The puzzling near-equal salience (89 direct and 85 inverse) and confidence (2.7% high-direct, 26.4% low-direct, 26.4% high-inverse, 22.4% low-inverse) for each of the two distinct effects (see Table 4.2) seems to imply almost random selection of inverse or direct effects of growth. The inherent power of the growth-conflict relationship (mean correlation coefficient is 0.58), however, drastically weakens this conclusion. In combination with this quandary, the pervasive dominance of the relationship by the pair of growth-rate variables suggests that the dual growth-conflict relationships arise from separate sources: two fundamentally different types of growth (see Appendix M).

The premise for disjunction of the growth process is that the two different effects observed (direct, inverse) are not simply dimensional aspects, or randomly selected results, of a simple homogeneous growth process. Rather, they arise from separate growth-conflict relationships, each the result of a distinct associated type of growth. Recognition of two types of growth allows association of each through only one GCR either directly to a positive effect or inversely to a negative effect. Intuitively, disjunction of the growth process would seem useful, not only in strengthening the regression model, but, most importantly, in completing the logical syllogism involving growth and conflict

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The Economic Basis of Peace: Linkages between Economic Growth and International Conflict
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Recent Titles in Contributions in Economics and Economic History ii
  • Title Page iii
  • Contents v
  • Preface vii
  • Acknowledgments xi
  • 1 - Introduction 1
  • Notes 6
  • 2 - Historical Perspectives 9
  • Notes 30
  • 3 - Theoretical Approaches 37
  • Notes 97
  • 4 - An Empirical Approach 107
  • Notes 164
  • 5 - A Quandary and a Conjecture 171
  • Notes 188
  • 6 - What It All Means 193
  • Notes 229
  • Appendix A: On Economic Stagnation 237
  • Notes 238
  • Appendix B: On the Three Traditions 239
  • Notes 240
  • Appendix C: On Long Waves 241
  • Notes 243
  • Appendix D: On Foreign Investment 244
  • Note 245
  • Appendix E: On Division of Labor 246
  • Notes 246
  • Appendix F: On Alternative Economies 248
  • Notes 249
  • Appendix G: On Protoindustrialization 251
  • Notes 252
  • Appendix H: On Confidence Levels 253
  • Note 254
  • Appendix I: On Growth Processes 255
  • Notes 256
  • Appendix J: On Static Models 257
  • Appendix K: On Defense of Realism 259
  • Notes 260
  • Appendix L: On Growth Strategies 261
  • Appendix M: On Dualism and Growth 262
  • Notes 265
  • Appendix N: On Lawlike Regularities 267
  • Notes 269
  • Bibliography 271
  • Author Index 289
  • Subject Index 293
  • About the Author 305
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